Ascend Strength & Conditioning Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact, with mitigations and the pre-committed trigger points adopted as policy.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Positioning
- 3. How a Studio Actually Makes Money
- 4. Churn and the Retention Engine
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations and the Capacity Build
- 7. Compliance and Consumer Protection
- 8. Management and Team
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capacity and Unit Economics Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Assessment |
Mitigation and residual position |
|---|---|---|
|
Churn above plan |
High likelihood, severe impact |
Attendance monitored weekly as the leading indicator; automated outreach when visit frequency drops; onboarding programme covering the first six weeks, when most cancellations originate; coach-to-member relationship deliberately built |
|
Chain price competition and scheme subsidies |
Certain, moderate impact |
Do not compete on access. Product, coaching quality and results are the defence. Investigate rewards-programme partnership where terms permit an independent operator |
|
Coach departure taking members |
Moderate likelihood, high impact |
Members rotate across coaches by design; programming owned by the business; restraint and non-solicitation provisions; coach development and progression to aid retention |
|
Member injury |
Moderate likelihood, high impact |
Medical screening at sign-up, qualified coaches, current first aid certification, movement standards enforced, indemnity cover and incident reporting |
|
Discretionary spend contraction |
High likelihood, high impact |
Corporate wellness contracts as a counter-cyclical revenue line; an off-peak tier at lower price; annual prepayment option at a discount |
|
Debit order collection failure |
High likelihood, moderate impact |
Authenticated mandates, 3.8% provision for unrecovered failures, immediate follow-up protocol, card as an alternative |
|
Capacity ceiling limiting growth |
Certain from Year 4 |
Growth after Year 4 comes from price, personal training and corporate contracts rather than from member count; a second site evaluated only once retention is proven |
|
Load shedding |
High likelihood, moderate impact |
Solar and battery sized for lighting, ventilation, sound, water heating and access control; classes are deliverable without machines by design |
D.1 Pre-committed trigger points
|
Point |
Trigger |
Committed response |
|---|---|---|
|
Month 4 |
Premises not complete or fewer than five coaches contracted and certified |
Do not open. A coached studio without certified coaches has no product and no insurance |
|
Day one |
Fewer than 150 founding members signed |
Defer the opening date rather than open into an empty timetable. A class of three is worse than no class |
|
Month 12 |
Members below 330 or churn not trending below 8% |
Do not build the third studio. Fill the two you have |
|
End of Year 2 |
Monthly churn above 7% |
Halt the third studio build. Expanding at high churn simply builds a larger treadmill |
|
Any month |
Average visits per member per week below 2.0 |
Escalate immediately. Attendance is the leading indicator and it moves months before cancellation |
|
Year 4 |
Churn above 4.5% sustained over a full year |
Do not open a second site. Retention must be proven before capacity is replicated |