Africa Green Energy Holdings — Projected Profit & Loss Statement
The projected profit and loss statement over the plan horizon — revenue, operating costs, EBITDA, depreciation, finance costs and net income, with the margin trajectory.
Section 14 · Business Plan
Projected Profit & Loss Statement
The projected profit and loss statement over the plan horizon — revenue, operating costs, EBITDA, depreciation, finance costs and net income, with the margin trajectory.
The consolidated Profit & Loss statement presented below covers
FY2027 (development year, pre-revenue) through FY2036, reflecting AGEH’s
portfolio at full operational capacity. All figures are in ZAR millions
unless otherwise stated. Revenue scales materially in FY2029 with first
power from the Solar PV phase, with full portfolio commercial operation
achieved by Q4 FY2030.
14.1 Consolidated P&L (FY2027-FY2031)
| R million | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue – Solar PV | — | 315 | 1,015 | 1,475 | 1,540 |
| Revenue – Wind | — | — | 340 | 1,140 | 1,195 |
| Revenue – BESS / Ancillary | — | — | 445 | 585 | 615 |
| Total Revenue | — | 315 | 1,800 | 3,200 | 3,350 |
| O&M expenses | — | (38) | (195) | (345) | (360) |
| Insurance | — | (12) | (65) | (110) | (115) |
| Land lease & servitudes | — | (15) | (58) | (98) | (103) |
| Grid use-of-system charges | — | (28) | (140) | (220) | (230) |
| General & administrative | (45) | (55) | (95) | (135) | (140) |
| Total Operating Expenses | (45) | (148) | (553) | (908) | (948) |
| EBITDA | (45) | 167 | 1,247 | 2,292 | 2,402 |
| EBITDA margin (%) | n/m | 53.0% | 69.3% | 71.6% | 71.7% |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | (95) | (385) | (615) | (625) |
| EBIT | (45) | 72 | 862 | 1,677 | 1,777 |
| Net interest expense | (15) | (85) | (545) | (720) | (685) |
| Profit before tax | (60) | (13) | 317 | 957 | 1,092 |
| Income tax expense | — | — | — | — | (75) |
| Net Income / (Loss) | (60) | (13) | 317 | 957 | 1,017 |
Table 14.1 — Projected Consolidated Profit & Loss
(FY2027-FY2031), ZAR millions
14.2 Consolidated P&L (FY2032-FY2036)
| R million | FY2032 | FY2033 | FY2034 | FY2035 | FY2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue – Solar PV | 1,608 | 1,679 | 1,752 | 1,829 | 1,907 |
| Revenue – Wind | 1,247 | 1,302 | 1,359 | 1,418 | 1,479 |
| Revenue – BESS / Ancillary | 642 | 670 | 699 | 729 | 760 |
| Total Revenue | 3,497 | 3,651 | 3,810 | 3,976 | 4,146 |
| O&M expenses | (376) | (393) | (411) | (429) | (448) |
| Insurance | (120) | (125) | (131) | (137) | (143) |
| Land lease & servitudes | (108) | (114) | (120) | (127) | (133) |
| Grid use-of-system charges | (240) | (251) | (262) | (274) | (286) |
| General & administrative | (146) | (153) | (160) | (167) | (174) |
| Total Operating Expenses | (990) | (1,036) | (1,084) | (1,134) | (1,184) |
| EBITDA | 2,507 | 2,615 | 2,726 | 2,842 | 2,962 |
| EBITDA margin (%) | 71.7% | 71.6% | 71.5% | 71.5% | 71.4% |
| Depreciation & amortisation | (625) | (625) | (625) | (620) | (615) |
| EBIT | 1,882 | 1,990 | 2,101 | 2,222 | 2,347 |
| Net interest expense | (645) | (595) | (540) | (480) | (415) |
| Profit before tax | 1,237 | 1,395 | 1,561 | 1,742 | 1,932 |
| Income tax expense | (195) | (280) | (380) | (470) | (520) |
| Net Income | 1,042 | 1,115 | 1,181 | 1,272 | 1,412 |
Table 14.2 — Projected Consolidated Profit & Loss
(FY2032-FY2036), ZAR millions
14.3 Commentary on P&L Trajectory
Revenue trajectory: The portfolio achieves R3.2 billion in first full
operational year (FY2030), growing to R4.15 billion by FY2036 driven by
CPI escalators in PPAs (4.5% p.a.) partially offset by module/turbine
degradation. Solar PV remains the largest single revenue contributor,
comprising 46% of FY2030 revenues.
EBITDA quality: EBITDA margins stabilise at 71-72% by FY2030,
consistent with IFC benchmarks for utility-scale renewable platforms in
emerging markets (typically 65-75%). The margin profile reflects the
high operational leverage of renewables — minimal variable cost —
partially offset by escalating O&M as plant ages.
Tax shield utilisation: Section 12B accelerated depreciation creates
assessed losses that fully shelter taxable income through FY2030. Tax
expense emerges from FY2031 as assessed losses are utilised, reaching a
normalised effective tax rate of c.27% by FY2034 (statutory rate; no
permanent differences).
Net interest expense: Interest expense peaks in FY2030 immediately
post-COD and declines steadily as the senior amortisation schedule
reduces principal. Combined with EBITDA growth, this drives accelerating
net income from FY2031, with bottom-line CAGR of 6.8% over
FY2031-FY2036.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Africa Green Energy Holdings (Pty) Ltd.