Africa Green Energy Holdings Business Plan › Section 4 › Industry Statistics and Global Trends

4.1 Global Renewable Energy Investment Landscape

Global investment in clean energy reached USD 2.0 trillion in 2024,
the first year on record in which clean-energy capital deployment
exceeded fossil-fuel investment by a factor of two. According to the
International Energy Agency’s World Energy Investment 2025 report, solar
PV alone attracted USD 525 billion in 2024 — more capital than was
invested in upstream oil and gas combined. Battery storage investment
reached USD 105 billion (up 76% year on year), and onshore wind
attracted USD 165 billion. Emerging-market and developing-economy
investment, excluding China, accounted for USD 270 billion of the total
— a record but still a fraction of the level required to meet the global
Net Zero scenario.

Africa attracted only USD 22 billion of this total, or roughly 1% of
global clean-energy investment, despite hosting 18% of the world’s
population and 60% of the world’s best solar resource. The IFC, the
African Development Bank, and the Global Energy Alliance for People and
Planet have all identified the closure of this investment gap —
particularly in mid-market platforms in the USD 200 million to USD 1
billion range — as the single most impactful intervention available to
climate-and-development finance. AGEH is precisely positioned in that
bracket.

4.2 Solar Photovoltaic — Technology and Cost Trends

The unit cost of crystalline-silicon solar photovoltaic modules has
declined more than 90% since 2010 and continues to fall. Average module
prices reached USD 0.085 per Watt-peak in Q4 2025, down from USD 0.32
per Wp in 2018. The cost curve is driven by economies of scale (with
global module production now exceeding 850 GW per annum), supply-chain
consolidation in China, the ongoing transition from PERC to TOPCon and
HJT cell architectures, and the emergence of next-generation
back-contact and tandem-cell technologies. AGEH’s solar PV portfolio is
being engineered around N-type TOPCon bifacial modules with single-axis
trackers, generating an estimated 28% to 32% capacity factor in the
Northern Cape resource zone — among the highest in the world.

4.3 Onshore Wind — Technology Evolution and South African Outlook

Onshore wind turbine technology has evolved rapidly over the past
decade. Modern utility-scale turbines have hub heights of 130 to 160
metres, rotor diameters of 160 to 175 metres, and rated power outputs of
5 to 7 MW per turbine. The capacity factor of well-sited onshore wind
projects in South Africa’s Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, and Western Cape
can now exceed 45%, materially above the global average of 33%. South
Africa’s onshore wind resource is concentrated along the southern and
western coastal escarpment, where average annual wind speeds at
100-metre hub height exceed 8.0 metres per second.

Despite this resource quality, only 3.6 GW of wind has been
commissioned in South Africa through 2025, against an installable
potential estimated by the CSIR at more than 80 GW. Grid-connection
bottlenecks have been the principal constraint. The 2025-2035
Transmission Development Plan, gazetted by NTCSA in March 2025, commits
ZAR 390 billion to 14,200 km of new transmission lines and is expected
to unlock approximately 53 GW of new grid-injection capacity. AGEH’s
wind farm site has been pre-cleared with NTCSA and lies within the
Eastern Cape Energy Corridor, where 6 GW of additional grid-injection
capacity is firmly scheduled for commissioning by 2029.

4.4 Battery Energy Storage — The Inflection Point

Lithium-iron-phosphate (“LFP”) battery cell prices have collapsed 70%
since 2022, reaching USD 89 per kWh at the cell level and USD 168 per
kWh at the fully-installed DC-block level by Q4 2025. BloombergNEF’s
Battery Price Survey 2025 projects further declines to USD 60 per kWh at
cell level by 2030. This transformation has made stand-alone four-hour
battery energy storage systems economically viable as both
peaking-capacity replacements and ancillary-services providers.

South Africa’s Battery Energy Storage Independent Power Producer
Procurement Programme (“BESIPPPP”) has, by December 2025, awarded 1.7 GW
/ 11 GWh of capacity across three bid windows. AGEH’s 100 MW / 400 MWh
battery storage portfolio will combine the proven capacity-charge
revenue model of BESIPPPP (offering more than 50% of revenue under firm
capacity payments) with arbitrage revenue earned in the Wholesale
Electricity Market and merchant ancillary-services revenue from
frequency regulation.

4.5 South African Renewable Energy Industrial Footprint

Table 4.1 — South African renewables industrial footprint.
Sources: REIPPPP IPP Office Quarterly Reports; SAWEA; SAPVIA; IRENA; BDO
South Africa Renewables Report 2025.

4.6 Demand-Side Drivers

4.6.1 Mining Sector

South African mining houses are the single largest concentrated
source of corporate renewable-energy demand. Anglo American,
Sibanye-Stillwater, Gold Fields, Harmony Gold, Impala Platinum, and
Exxaro have collectively contracted more than 2.5 GW of behind-the-meter
or wheeled renewable supply since 2022, with publicly stated targets of
an additional 5 GW by 2030. The drivers include Eskom tariff inflation,
ESG commitments to Scope 1 and 2 emissions reduction, and the European
Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (“CBAM”) which from October
2026 will impose carbon-content-based tariffs on minerals exported to
the EU.

4.6.2 Data Centres

South Africa hosts the highest concentration of data-centre capacity
on the African continent, with more than 380 MW of operational capacity
and a further 1,200 MW under construction by hyperscale operators
including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Teraco,
NTT, and Vantage Data Centers. Hyperscalers have publicly committed to
100% renewable-energy sourcing globally, generating direct demand for
AGEH’s solar and wind portfolio under 10 to 15-year corporate PPAs.

4.6.3 Industrial and Retail

The industrial sector — including manufacturers in automotive,
chemicals, paper, food processing, and cement — accounts for more than
41% of South Africa’s electricity consumption and has been among the
worst-affected by load-shedding. Major retail groups including Shoprite,
Pick n Pay, Massmart, and the Mr Price Group have publicly committed to
procuring more than 600 MW of renewable energy through wheeled PPAs by
2030.

4.7 Supply-Side Trends

On the supply side, South Africa has approximately 380 active
renewable-energy developers, of which 38 hold operational utility-scale
assets exceeding 50 MW. The competitive landscape is bifurcated between
a small number of large international platforms (Scatec, Engie, EDF
Renewables, Enel Green Power, AMEA Power, Globeleq) and a broader
population of mid-tier domestic IPPs (Red Rocket, Mulilo, BioTherm, Pele
Green Energy, AIIM-backed platforms). AGEH’s positioning as a mid-tier,
locally-led, BEE-anchored platform with international DFI backing
addresses a specific structural gap in the market.

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