Africa Green Energy Holdings — Projected Cash Flow Statement
The projected cash flow statement over the plan horizon — operating, investing and financing cash flows, the debt-service profile and the free cash flow to equity.
Section 16 · Business Plan
Projected Cash Flow Statement
The projected cash flow statement over the plan horizon — operating, investing and financing cash flows, the debt-service profile and the free cash flow to equity.
The cash flow statement disaggregates AGEH’s cash generation into
operating, investing and financing activities. The construction phase
(FY2027-FY2029) is characterised by heavy investing outflows funded by
debt and equity drawdowns; the operating phase (FY2030+) is
characterised by strong, predictable operating cash flow, decreasing
financing outflows from amortisation, and growing dividend
distributions.
16.1 Cash Flow Statement (FY2027-FY2031)
| R million | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPERATING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| EBITDA | (45) | 167 | 1,247 | 2,292 | 2,402 |
| Change in working capital | (15) | (18) | (108) | (178) | (22) |
| Income tax paid | — | — | — | — | (10) |
| Net Operating Cash Flow | (60) | 149 | 1,139 | 2,114 | 2,370 |
| INVESTING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| CAPEX – construction | (1,250) | (4,685) | (2,915) | (50) | (20) |
| Development cost capitalised | (180) | (95) | (75) | — | — |
| Reserve accounts funded | — | (180) | (140) | (65) | (10) |
| Net Investing Cash Flow | (1,430) | (4,960) | (3,130) | (115) | (30) |
| FINANCING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| Equity injection | 1,500 | — | — | — | — |
| IFC senior debt drawdown | — | 2,250 | 750 | — | — |
| DFI co-financing drawdown | — | 1,500 | 500 | — | — |
| Commercial bank drawdown | — | 1,500 | 500 | — | — |
| IFC climate finance drawdown | — | 260 | 90 | — | — |
| Senior debt amortisation | — | — | — | (615) | (525) |
| Interest paid | (15) | (85) | (545) | (720) | (685) |
| Dividends to shareholders | — | — | — | — | (1,140) |
| Financing fees | (75) | (60) | — | — | — |
| Net Financing Cash Flow | 1,410 | 5,365 | 1,295 | (1,335) | (2,350) |
| Net change in cash | (80) | 554 | (696) | 664 | (10) |
| Opening cash | 200 | 120 | 674 | (22) | 642 |
| Closing cash | 120 | 674 | (22) | 642 | 632 |
Table 16.1 — Projected Cash Flow Statement (FY2027-FY2031), ZAR
millions
16.2 Cash Flow Statement (FY2032-FY2036)
| R million | FY2032 | FY2033 | FY2034 | FY2035 | FY2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPERATING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| EBITDA | 2,507 | 2,615 | 2,726 | 2,842 | 2,962 |
| Change in working capital | (28) | (30) | (31) | (33) | (35) |
| Income tax paid | (185) | (250) | (340) | (440) | (500) |
| Net Operating Cash Flow | 2,294 | 2,335 | 2,355 | 2,369 | 2,427 |
| INVESTING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| Maintenance capex | (15) | (15) | (15) | (20) | (20) |
| BESS augmentation reserve | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) |
| Net Investing Cash Flow | (30) | (30) | (30) | (35) | (35) |
| FINANCING ACTIVITIES | |||||
| Senior debt amortisation | (485) | (580) | (645) | (700) | (760) |
| Interest paid | (645) | (595) | (540) | (480) | (415) |
| Dividends to shareholders | (1,094) | (1,080) | (1,100) | (1,119) | (1,177) |
| Net Financing Cash Flow | (2,224) | (2,255) | (2,285) | (2,299) | (2,352) |
| Net change in cash | 40 | 50 | 40 | 35 | 40 |
| Opening cash | 632 | 672 | 722 | 762 | 797 |
| Closing cash | 672 | 722 | 762 | 797 | 837 |
Table 16.2 — Projected Cash Flow Statement (FY2032-FY2036), ZAR
millions
16.3 Cash Flow Commentary
Operating cash conversion: AGEH demonstrates strong operating cash
conversion, with cash from operations averaging 96-98% of EBITDA over
the steady-state period. Working capital absorption is modest given the
long-term nature of REIPPPP receivables and the relatively low
inventory/payables intensity of renewable generation.
Construction-phase funding: The R8.85 billion total funding
requirement is drawn down over 30 months in a profile that closely
matches construction milestones, minimising idle balances and IDC.
Equity is fully injected at financial close (Q1 FY2027); debt drawdowns
commence in FY2028 and are completed by mid-FY2029.
Dividend coverage: From FY2031 onward, free cash flow to equity
(FCFE) ranges between R1.0 billion and R1.2 billion per annum, providing
a robust cushion above the dividend lock-up tests. Distributions remain
within the c.R1.1 billion band, building reserves and maintaining
covenant headroom.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Africa Green Energy Holdings (Pty) Ltd.