Karoo Crown Beef Group — Financial Plan — Assumptions & Methodology
The key financial assumptions and modelling methodology — herd and throughput, pricing by channel, cost structure, capital structure, tax and the macroeconomic inputs.
Section 13 · Business Plan
Financial Plan — Assumptions & Methodology
The key financial assumptions and modelling methodology — herd and throughput, pricing by channel, cost structure, capital structure, tax and the macroeconomic inputs.
13.1 Methodology
The financial model is constructed on a monthly basis for the first
24 months (the construction and ramp-up period) and on a quarterly basis
thereafter through Year 10. All projections in this document present
annualised figures for clarity. The model employs three-statement
consistency (profit & loss, balance sheet, cash flow), full
integration between operational drivers and financial outputs, separate
modelling of capital expenditure and depreciation by asset class, and
explicit modelling of debt service, tax (including tax-loss
carry-forward) and dividends.
All figures are presented in South African Rand (ZAR) unless
otherwise stated. A working USD/ZAR exchange rate of R17.85/USD has been
used for the base case, with sensitivity analysis at ±10%. Inflation has
been applied separately to South African input costs (consumer price
index basis, 5.2% annual) and to international export prices (where
applicable, 1.8% annual). Tax rate is the prevailing South African
corporate tax rate of 27%.
13.2 Key Operating Assumptions
| Driver | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Cattle slaughtered per year (Y5) | 50,000 | Aligned with 14,000 t output and 67.2% carcass yield |
| Carcass yield (Y5) | 67.2% | Industry-best, supported by feedlot finishing |
| Average dressed carcass weight | 280 kg | Aligned with SA national average (RMAA 2025) |
| Cattle procurement price (Y1) | R 32/kg LW | 5-year SA average; long-term contracts referenced to benchmarks |
| Cattle price inflation | +4.2% p.a. | Tied to feed maize and producer cost index |
| Realised price uplift over commodity | +42% (Y1) to +62% (Y5) | Reflects progressive premium channel mix |
| Export volume share | 35% (Y1) → 78% (Y5) | Conservative vs Australian/Namibian benchmarks at 70-85% |
| Working-capital cycle (DSO + inv − DPO) | 62 days (Y5) | Higher than commodity peers given chilled export |
| Capex maintenance (Y3+) | 3.0% of revenue | Industry standard for export-grade processing |
13.3 Capital Structure & Financing Cost
The proposed capital structure comprises senior term debt (ZAR 380m
at JIBAR + 360 bps, indicative all-in rate of ~12.4%, 8-year tenor with
18-month grace on principal), promoter and strategic equity (ZAR 245m),
mezzanine quasi-equity (ZAR 95m at fixed coupon of 14.5%, payable in
kind during ramp-up), producer co-operative equity (ZAR 95m), and grant
funding (ZAR 49m, principally DTIC Agro-processing Support Scheme and
IDC Concessional). Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) in the base
case is calculated at 13.8% (after-tax).
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Karoo Crown Beef Group (Pty) Ltd.