Karoo Crown Beef Group — Returns Analysis & Investor Proposition
The returns analysis and investor proposition, including the 27.4% equity IRR, the 18.6% unlevered project IRR, the 5.8-year payback and the value-realisation thesis.
Section 18 · Business Plan
Returns Analysis & Investor Proposition
The returns analysis and investor proposition, including the 27.4% equity IRR, the 18.6% unlevered project IRR, the 5.8-year payback and the value-realisation thesis.
18.1 Returns Summary
| Metric | Base case | Upside (+10%) | Downside (-10%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity IRR (5-year hold) | 27.4% | 31.8% | 21.6% |
| Equity IRR (10-year hold) | 23.8% | 27.9% | 18.7% |
| Equity multiple (5-year) | 2.4x | 2.8x | 1.9x |
| Equity multiple (10-year) | 3.9x | 4.7x | 2.8x |
| Project IRR (unlevered) | 18.6% | 22.4% | 13.8% |
| Project payback period | 5.8 yrs | 5.0 yrs | 7.2 yrs |
| Year-5 EBITDA | R446m | R512m | R342m |
| Year-5 net debt / EBITDA | 0.7x | 0.4x | 1.4x |
| Debt service cover ratio (Y5) | 4.8x | 5.6x | 3.5x |
18.2 Sensitivity Analysis
The two largest sensitivities are realised export price (each 1%
change moves equity NPV by approximately ZAR 18.5m) and cattle
procurement cost (each 1% change moves equity NPV by approximately ZAR
11.8m). The model is robust to all single-variable downside shocks
within the stated ranges — even a 10% adverse move in the largest
sensitivity does not breach the senior debt service coverage
covenants.
18.3 Investor Proposition
(i) Asymmetric upside in an under-monetised export segment; (ii)
defensible margin moat through vertical integration and certification
stack; (iii) producer-anchored supply security that traded peers cannot
replicate; (iv) board-grade governance and ESG framework from inception;
(v) experienced, hands-on management team with prior export-abattoir
build experience; (vi) clear, multiple-pathway exit optionality at Year
5-8.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Karoo Crown Beef Group (Pty) Ltd.