AgriFeed Holdings Business Plan › Section 3 › Industry & Market Analysis

This section quantifies the South African animal feed market,
identifies the structural growth drivers and risk factors, and explains
why the timing for AgriFeed Holdings’ entry is uniquely favourable. The
analysis is grounded in primary data from the Animal Feed Manufacturers
Association (AFMA), the United States Department of Agriculture
(USDA-FAS) GAIN reports, and triangulated against Mordor Intelligence,
IMARC Group, Expert Market Research, and the Alltech Agri-Food Outlook
2025.

3.1 South African Animal Feed Industry Snapshot

South Africa is the largest and most industrialised animal feed
market on the African continent. According to the USDA-FAS GAIN report
on the South African feed industry, AFMA member mills account for
approximately 60% of national production, with the balance produced by
independent commercial mills, on-farm mixers, and informal compounders.
Total estimated industry output is approximately 12 million metric tons
per annum, of which roughly 8.4 million tons is formal compound
feed.

AFMA’s monthly production statistics confirm a recovery trajectory.
Total formal production for the first ten months of 2025 reached 5.95
million tons — a 4.1% increase on 2024 and 1.8% above 2023. Year-on-year
output in October 2025 was 632,068 tons versus 617,493 tons a year
earlier (+2.7%). The recovery is led by the broiler and layer segments
and is consistent with the post-avian-influenza restocking thesis.

Figure 3.1

Market Size and Growth

Sources: AFMA Animal Feed Reports (May, October & December
2025); USDA-FAS GAIN Report SF2024-0022; IMARC Group South Africa Animal
Feed Market Report 2025–2033; Expert Market Research South Africa Animal
Feed Market 2025; Mordor Intelligence South Africa Compound Feed Market
2025. *Includes commercial compound, on-farm mixed, and roughage
components.

Segmentation by Animal Type

Poultry remains the dominant segment, with broiler and layer feeds
together accounting for roughly 55% of total compound feed volume.
Mordor Intelligence reports that poultry commanded 39.6% of South
African compound feed market share in 2025, while aquaculture is
forecast to be the fastest-growing animal-type segment at 7.22% CAGR
through 2031. Within ingredients, cereals contributed 46.4% of compound
feed market size in 2025, while feed supplements and additives are
projected to grow at 6.55% CAGR — the fastest-growing ingredient
category — as mills shift toward antibiotic-free and emissions-reduced
formulations.

Figure 3.2

Geographic Distribution

Demand is concentrated in five provinces. Western Cape and Gauteng
together account for approximately 44% of compound feed demand, anchored
by dense broiler complexes, layer operations, and the largest cluster of
ISO-certified mills. KwaZulu-Natal accounts for around 19.6% of demand,
supported by Midlands broilers and an expanding coastal dairy herd. The
Free State and North West are surplus maize hubs increasingly driving
backward integration by feedlot operators. Limpopo and Mpumalanga are
emerging opportunities — particularly for inland aquaculture and
emerging-farmer poultry — but currently have limited milling capacity,
which raises delivered feed costs and creates the structural gap that
AgriFeed Phase 1 is positioned to capture.

Figure 3.3

3.2 Demand Drivers & Macro Context

Population, Urbanisation & Protein Demand

South Africa’s population is projected to grow from approximately 63
million in 2024 to 67 million by 2030, with urbanisation expanding from
68% to 73% over the same period. Per-capita poultry meat consumption
(the primary driver of broiler feed demand) is estimated at 38 kg per
annum and is projected to reach 41 kg by 2030, supported by the relative
affordability of chicken versus red meat. Per-capita egg consumption
stands at approximately 165 eggs per person per year, with sustained
growth in QSR and food-service demand pulling layer-feed volumes
higher.

Recovery from Animal-Health Shocks

The 2023 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak resulted
in the culling of more than 8.5 million birds and a temporary
contraction in broiler placements. AFMA data confirms that broiler-feed
production rebounded in 2025 — cumulative production from January to
October 2025 reached 1.28 million tons, 5.8% above 2024 — as integrators
rebuilt flocks. Conversely, beef and sheep feed production remains under
pressure from periodic foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) movement bans,
declining from 712,423 tons in 2023 to 631,289 tons in 2025. The
Company’s portfolio is deliberately weighted toward poultry and dairy to
capture the recovery cycle whilst managing FMD-related downside
risk.

Emerging Farmer Programmes & Government Policy

The Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development
(DALRRD) Master Plan for the Poultry, Red Meat, and Dairy industries
(Phase 2 implementation 2024–2029) explicitly prioritises
emerging-farmer integration, with cumulative R8.7 billion in committed
support across feed, genetics, and infrastructure. The Industrial
Development Corporation (IDC) Agro-Processing Competitiveness Fund and
Land Bank’s Wholesale Finance Facility provide concessional capital for
mills that demonstrate verifiable emerging-farmer offtake. AgriFeed’s
flagship Emerging Farmer Programme is calibrated to qualify for these
support frameworks.

Sustainability & Premiumisation Trends

Mills are increasingly investing in enzyme blends, amino acid
balancing, and probiotic technologies to compress crude-protein levels —
a trend driven by both retail antibiotic-free mandates (Pick n Pay,
Woolworths, Shoprite) and emissions-reduction pressure. Imarc Group
reports that South Africa’s animal feed additives market is projected to
grow from USD 377.6 million in 2025 to USD 510.4 million by 2033 (3.84%
CAGR). AgriFeed’s specification platform is designed to deploy
DSM-Firmenich protease analogs, Evonik MetAMINO methionine, and
probiotic gut-health solutions from day one.

3.3 Supply, Imports & Raw Material Dynamics

Compound feed manufacturing is a high-volume, low-margin business in
which raw material costs typically represent 78–84% of revenue. Maize is
the principal energy source (38–46% of input cost), with soybean meal
(21–24%) the dominant protein input, supplemented by wheat bran, oilseed
cakes, and additives. South Africa is structurally a maize surplus
country (2024/25 commercial harvest ~13.5 million tons, of which ~9
million tons is for human and animal use), but is a net importer of
soybean meal — approximately 350,000 tons annually, sourced principally
from Argentina.

Figure 3.4

Raw Material Price Volatility

SAFEX yellow maize spot prices have ranged between ZAR 3,500/t and
ZAR 5,800/t over the 2021–2025 period, with seasonal swings of 15–25%
within a single calendar year. Soybean meal landed prices have shown
comparable volatility, amplified by ZAR/USD exchange rate movement.
Effective procurement — through forward contracts, basis trading, and
direct grower contracts — is therefore the single largest determinant of
unit margin in this industry.

AgriFeed’s procurement strategy (detailed in Section
8) is explicitly designed to capture this margin: a combination of
layered SAFEX hedging, multi-year offtake agreements with grain
handlers, contract-grower programmes in the Mpumalanga and Free State
maize triangle, and a strategic 14-day storage buffer. Modelled benefit:
80–120 basis points of incremental gross margin versus a spot-only
procurement approach.

3.4 Regional & SADC Outlook

South Africa is the SADC region’s dominant feed exporter. Namibia,
Botswana, Lesotho, eSwatini, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Zambia together
absorb approximately 95% of South African feed exports by volume — with
Namibia and Botswana the largest by share, and Zimbabwe and Zambia the
largest by value. The IndexBox Africa Feed Market Report (2025) records
exports rising in value terms during 2025 after a brief decline in
2023–2024.

Within SADC, the Africa poultry feed market is valued at USD 15.0
billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 18.05 billion by 2031
(3.74% CAGR). Nigeria captures the largest single-country share (28.2%),
but Ethiopia is forecast to grow fastest at 7.64% CAGR. Within the SADC
sub-region specifically, Zambia and Mozambique are emerging as the most
attractive secondary export markets due to (i) lower per-capita feed
consumption with strong upside, (ii) rapidly formalising poultry
industries, and (iii) hard-currency revenue access via integrators
selling into South African and EU markets. AgriFeed’s Phase 4 SADC entry
strategy targets these two markets first, leveraging Beitbridge and
Chirundu road logistics from the Mpumalanga site.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of AgriFeed Holdings (Pty) Ltd.