Continental Auto Exports — Appendices
The financial projections are based on the following detailed assumptions which should be read in conjunction with the risk factors described in Section 11.
Section 20 · Business Plan
Appendices
The financial projections are based on the following detailed assumptions which should be read in conjunction with the risk factors described in Section 11.
Appendix A: Detailed Assumptions
The financial projections are based on the following detailed assumptions which should be read in conjunction with the risk factors described in Section 11.
| Category | Assumption | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle Volume | Units exported | 250 | 450 | 700 |
| Average Selling Price | USD per vehicle | 24,000 | 26,667 | 25,714 |
| COGS as % of Revenue | Target | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Staff Count | Full-time employees | 15 | 25 | 35 |
| Average Salary | USD per annum | 28,000 | 23,200 | 22,286 |
| Rent | Monthly (USD) | 6,000 | 7,000 | 8,000 |
| Working Capital Cycle | Days | 60 | 50 | 45 |
| Capex | Annual (USD) | 280,000 | 152,000 | 172,000 |
| Exchange Rate | ZAR/USD | 18.50 | 18.80 | 19.20 |
| Tax Rate | SA corporate | 27% | 27% | 27% |
Appendix B: Sensitivity Analysis
The following table illustrates the sensitivity of Year 3 EBITDA to changes in key variables, holding all other assumptions constant.
| Variable | Base Case | Downside (-10%) | Upside (+10%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle Volume | 700 units | 630 units | 770 units |
| Average Selling Price | USD 25,714 | USD 23,143 | USD 28,286 |
| Gross Margin | 20.0% | 18.0% | 22.0% |
| ZAR/USD Rate | 19.20 | 17.28 (ZAR strengthens) | 21.12 (ZAR weakens) |
| EBITDA Impact | USD 2,204K | USD 1,680K | USD 2,730K |
Appendix C: Glossary of Terms
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| AGOA | African Growth and Opportunity Act – US legislation providing preferential trade access to qualifying African countries |
| B-BBEE | Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment – South African transformation legislation |
| COGS | Cost of Goods Sold – direct costs attributable to vehicle procurement and preparation |
| CPO | Certified Pre-Owned – vehicles that have been inspected and certified to meet quality standards |
| DOT | US Department of Transportation – regulator responsible for vehicle safety standards |
| EBITDA | Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation |
| EPA | Environmental Protection Agency – US regulator responsible for emission standards |
| FMVSS | Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards – US vehicle safety compliance standards |
| OEM | Original Equipment Manufacturer – vehicle manufacturer (e.g., BMW, Toyota) |
| RoRo | Roll-on/Roll-off – shipping method where vehicles are driven onto the vessel |
| SAAM | South African Automotive Masterplan – government policy framework for the automotive sector |
| SEZ | Special Economic Zone – designated area offering tax and operational incentives |
| ZAR | South African Rand – official currency of South Africa |
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