Crownstone College Group Business Plan — Projected Balance Sheet

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Projected Balance Sheet

The balance sheet below ties in every year, total assets equal total equity and liabilities, a consistency enforced by assertion in the underlying model. It reflects the asset profile of a campus-based education group: a large property, plant and equipment base (academic and boarding buildings, sports and arts facilities, ICT and equipment), modest working capital, and a cash buffer maintained through the build and ramp.

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Assets

Net property, plant & equipment

470

627

709

711

700

Working capital

8

12

17

22

29

Cash & equivalents

326

176

78

64

65

Total assets

803

815

803

797

795

Equity & liabilities

Share capital

500

500

500

500

500

Retained earnings

-47

-95

-127

-133

-105

Total equity

453

405

373

367

395

Debt (closing)

350

410

430

430

400

Total equity & liabilities

803

815

803

797

795

Figure 22. Balance sheet composition — total assets by category

Asset backing and collateral cover

The balance sheet is anchored by a large, tangible and appreciating asset base, a 55-hectare campus with academic and boarding buildings, sports and arts facilities, and the underlying land, that a lender can secure against. This is high-quality collateral: education real estate is scarce, long-life and appreciating, and its replacement cost together with the land would substantially exceed the debt. Retained earnings erode through the loss-making ramp years (total equity dips from about R453m to R367m by Year 4) before rebuilding as the business turns profitable, the balance-sheet signature of a J-curve build, and a reason the equity cushion and contingency matter.

Leverage profile

Conventional leverage ratios are of limited use during the ramp because EBITDA is negative or thin, net debt to EBITDA is not meaningful in the early years. What matters instead is absolute debt against the asset base and the equity cushion: debt peaks at R430m against a campus worth over R700m net of depreciation, comfortable asset cover. As EBITDA scales toward maturity, leverage normalises rapidly and the business deleverages from operating cash.

Figure 23. Net debt / EBITDA — elevated through the ramp, normalising with scale