The cash flow statement reconciles net profit to the movement in cash, capturing the heavy investing outflow of the campus build and the financing inflows that fund it. Operating cash flow is negative in Year 1 and builds as enrolment scales; the equity-first, contingency-buffered structure keeps the cash balance positive throughout, though it thins to about R64m in Year 4 at the base of the J-curve.
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Operating cash flow |
-38 |
-27 |
-4 |
24 |
60 |
|
Investing (capex) |
-486 |
-183 |
-114 |
-38 |
-29 |
|
Financing |
850 |
60 |
20 |
0 |
-30 |
|
Net change in cash |
326 |
-150 |
-98 |
-14 |
1 |
|
Closing cash |
326 |
176 |
78 |
64 |
65 |
Analyst flagThe cash position is positive — but thin at the base of the J-curve
The plan draws equity first, phases debt to match the build, holds a grace period on principal, and defers dividends. Together these keep the modelled cash balance positive across the ramp. But the balance thins to roughly R64m by Year 4, the base of the J-curve, where cumulative losses and continuing capex coincide, before recovering. This is the tightest point of the plan, and it is where a slower-than-planned enrolment ramp would first bite. Sizing the contingency, committing a standby facility, and disciplined milestone-linked drawdown are what keep the position funded through a disappointing year; they are conditions of the structure, not optional extras.