Appendix A — Centre rollout & capacity
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Centres open |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
Beds |
120 |
240 |
360 |
480 |
600 |
|
Bed occupancy |
62% |
68% |
74% |
80% |
86% |
|
Admissions |
4,200 |
7,467 |
11,667 |
17,733 |
25,667 |
|
Therapy sessions |
9,818 |
17,455 |
27,273 |
41,455 |
60,000 |
|
Revenue per centre (R m) |
180 |
160 |
167 |
190 |
220 |
Appendix B — Depreciation, interest & tax (R m)
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Depreciation |
33 |
53 |
74 |
95 |
117 |
|
Gross PP&E |
565 |
905 |
1,250 |
1,600 |
1,955 |
|
Accumulated depreciation |
33 |
86 |
160 |
255 |
372 |
|
Interest expense |
17 |
49 |
78 |
96 |
99 |
|
Debt (closing) |
300 |
550 |
800 |
870 |
850 |
|
Taxation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
Appendix C — Revenue by source (R m)
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Medical-aid payments |
72 |
128 |
200 |
304 |
440 |
|
Government contracts |
36 |
64 |
100 |
152 |
220 |
|
Private patients |
27 |
48 |
75 |
114 |
165 |
|
Home healthcare |
14 |
26 |
40 |
61 |
88 |
|
Corporate & occupational |
9 |
16 |
25 |
38 |
55 |
|
Equipment rental |
7 |
13 |
20 |
30 |
44 |
|
Training academy |
5 |
10 |
15 |
23 |
33 |
|
Research grants |
4 |
6 |
10 |
15 |
22 |
|
Donations & CSI |
5 |
10 |
15 |
23 |
33 |
|
Total revenue |
180 |
320 |
500 |
760 |
1,100 |
Appendix D — Key assumptions register
|
Assumption |
Value |
|---|---|
|
Centres (5-yr / 10-yr) |
5 / 10 (nine provinces) |
|
Revenue outlook |
R180m → R1,100m (sponsor) |
|
EBITDA margin |
8% → 25% (sponsor) |
|
Flagship / 5-yr programme |
R700m / ~R2.0bn |
|
Funding |
Equity R1.3bn / Debt R1.05bn |
|
Cost of debt / tax |
11.5% / 27% with loss cap |
|
Working capital |
~12% of revenue |
|
Exit |
10.5x EV/EBITDA (8–15x tested) |
|
Combined-stress IRR |
~-18% (ramp –20%, margin –15%, 8x exit) |
Appendix E — Glossary
|
Term |
Definition |
|---|---|
|
Transitional / step-down care |
Intermediate care between acute hospital and home for recovering patients. |
|
Multidisciplinary rehabilitation |
Coordinated physio, occupational, speech and other therapies. |
|
Cerebral palsy (CP) |
A group of movement disorders — the most common physical disability of childhood. |
|
Bed occupancy |
The proportion of available beds in use — a key utilisation driver. |
|
J-curve |
The pattern of early losses during a capital-intensive build before profitability. |
|
CFADS / DSCR |
Cash flow available for debt service; and CFADS divided by scheduled debt service. |
|
Debt-service reserve |
A funded reserve covering debt service during the ramp. |
|
MOIC |
Multiple of invested capital — total distributions divided by equity invested. |
|
NHI |
National Health Insurance — SA’s proposed universal health-financing reform. |
Appendix F — Important notice
This document is strictly private and confidential. It has been prepared for the exclusive use of prospective financiers and does not constitute an offer of securities, investment advice or medical advice. All projections preserve the sponsor’s stated revenue and margin outlook and are subject to material risk, of which workforce (therapist and specialist) supply, multi-round funding, capital-intensity / J-curve, institutional-payer (medical-aid and government / NHI) and occupancy-ramp risk are the most significant.