HarmonyBridge Children’s Health & Rehabilitation Centres Business Plan — Projected Cash Flow

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Section 17 · 18 of 21

Projected Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reconciles net profit to the movement in cash, capturing the large investing outflow of the multi-centre build and the phased equity and debt that fund it. Operating cash flow turns positive and grows as the network scales, but is insufficient to fund the build alone, the programme is financed principally by equity and development debt, phased to keep the cash balance positive throughout.

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Operating cash flow

-74

-53

-34

13

97

Investing (capex & launch)

-565

-340

-345

-350

-355

Financing

800

550

500

220

80

Net change in cash

161

157

121

-117

-178

Closing cash

161

318

439

321

143

Figure 28. Cumulative five-year cash flow waterfall (ZAR millions)
Figure 29. Pre-dividend free cash flow to equity

Analyst flagCash stays positive — but only on a committed, phased funding path

The plan phases equity and debt to match the build, holds a grace period on debt principal through the early ramp, and defers dividends. Together these keep the modelled cash balance positive throughout, thinning as later centres are built. The plan’s liquidity is therefore wholly contingent on the phased funding rounds landing on schedule; a delayed round would force the rollout to slow. Committing the multi-round funding path, a debt-service reserve and a working-capital facility from the outset, and sequencing each new centre only once anchor referral and payer contracts are in place, is what keeps the position robust. This is a funding-execution plan as much as an operating one.