This section and the four that follow present a complete, internally consistent financial model. The modelling philosophy is disciplined and transparent: the sponsor’s revenue and EBITDA targets are preserved exactly, while every line below EBITDA, depreciation, financing cost, taxation, dividends and returns, is independently re-derived from first principles. The balance sheet is constructed to tie in every year, and the cash flow reconciles to the movement in cash. Where our figures differ from the sponsor’s, we disclose the variance openly rather than smoothing it away.
Key performance indicators to monitor
Lenders and equity investors will track a defined set of indicators through the build and ramp period. The dashboard below sets out the metrics, their purpose, and the modelled trajectory, the same measures against which drawdowns, covenants and board reporting should be structured.
|
Indicator |
Why it matters |
Trajectory |
|---|---|---|
|
Blended EBITDA margin |
The core value-add thesis |
~11% → 17% as mix shifts to value-add |
|
Plant utilisation |
Volume vs installed capacity |
~40% → 84% by Year 5 |
|
Value-add revenue share |
Mix-shift from trading |
~62% and rising |
|
Net working capital |
Liquidity / cash absorption |
~10% of revenue, net of payables |
|
DSCR |
Debt-service headroom |
1.57x minimum, rising to ~2.0x |
|
Net debt / EBITDA |
Leverage & deleveraging |
Peaks ~2.0x, falls to ~0.4x |
|
Contracted farmers |
Supply security & impact |
3,000 → 12,000 |
Modelled KPI dashboard
|
Metric |
Year 1 |
Year 3 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue (R m) |
850 |
2,900 |
6,200 |
|
EBITDA (R m) |
95 |
420 |
1,050 |
|
EBITDA margin |
11.2% |
14.5% |
16.9% |
|
Throughput (kt) |
121 |
414 |
886 |
|
Utilisation |
40% |
49% |
84% |
|
Re-derived NPAT (R m) |
17 |
134 |
604 |
|
ROCE |
2.9% |
11.1% |
31.5% |
|
Net debt / EBITDA |
-2.45x |
1.98x |
0.41x |
Central assumptions
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Revenue & EBITDA |
Sponsor headline |
Preserved exactly; below-EBITDA re-derived |
|
Blended EBITDA margin (Y5) |
~16.9% |
Mix-shift from trading to value-add |
|
Throughput / capacity (Y5) |
~890kt / 1.05Mt |
~84% utilisation at scale |
|
Blended revenue / tonne |
~R7,000 |
Raw trading low; milled/branded high |
|
Contracted farmers |
3,000 → 12,000 |
Origination network ramp |
|
Depreciation |
Straight-line by vintage |
Plant depreciates from commissioning — no J-curve |
|
Debt : equity |
55 : 45 (R1,020m : R830m) |
DFI / commercial-bank anchored |
|
Cost of debt |
11.5% |
~ prime + 100bps |
|
Working capital |
~10% of revenue (net) |
Plus seasonal revolver for peak inventory |
|
Tax |
27% + 80% loss cap |
SA corporate rate, post-2022 rules |
|
Dividends |
30% of NPAT |
Deferred to Year 3 |
|
Exit multiple |
7.0x EV/EBITDA |
Integrated agro-processor comparable (AGT Foods) |
Sources and uses
|
Uses |
R m |
Sources |
R m |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Processing plants |
620 |
Senior term debt (DFI-anchored) |
1,020 |
|
|
Milling facilities |
280 |
Equity |
830 |
|
|
Storage & warehousing |
210 |
|||
|
Export logistics infrastructure |
240 |
|||
|
Farmer origination system |
180 |
|||
|
Seed & coating plant |
120 |
|||
|
Spice manufacturing facility |
90 |
|||
|
Working capital |
110 |
|||
|
Total uses |
1,850 |
Total sources |
1,850 |
NoteA seasonal working-capital revolver sits alongside the term debt
The R1.85 billion raise funds the plants, network and R110m of initial working capital. But a commodity-processing business at this revenue scale requires substantially more working capital at peak season than the initial allocation, grain inventory and export receivables build ahead of customer payment. The model funds the ongoing build from operating cash at a net ~10% of revenue, but a committed seasonal revolver (indicatively R300–400m) should be arranged alongside the term debt and sized to the peak inventory-and-receivables position, not the annual average. Committing that facility at close is as important to bankability as the term-debt structuring.