NovaBank SA — Key Risks & Mitigants
The key risks — regulatory, credit, funding, technology, competitive and execution — and the mitigants that protect the investment case.
Section 19 · Business Plan
Key Risks & Mitigants
The key risks — regulatory, credit, funding, technology, competitive and execution — and the mitigants that protect the investment case.
NovaBank’s Board has identified the principal risks to plan delivery
and has set out specific mitigants for each. The risk register is
reviewed monthly by the Risk Committee and quarterly by the full
Board.
| Key Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delay in SARB Section 13 approval | Medium | High | Pre-application engagement; full team in place pre-filing; experienced regulatory counsel |
| Tranche 2 capital raise fails / mistimed | Low-Med | High | Anchor investor pre-commitment; Tier 2 backstop; phased branch roll-out triggers |
| Higher-than-modelled credit losses | Medium | Medium | Conservative initial credit appetite; behavioural scorecard; affordability discipline |
| Customer acquisition slower than plan | Medium | Medium | Multi-channel strategy; flex marketing spend; salary-switch hook |
| Core banking technology delays | Medium | High | Vendor with proven SA deployments; fixed-price contract; 90-day buffer in plan |
| Cyber attack / data breach | Medium | High | 24/7 SOC; cyber insurance R500m; SARB JS2 alignment; ISO 27001 from launch |
| Aggressive incumbent retaliation | Medium | Medium | Cost-base structurally lower; brand-led differentiation; rapid execution |
| Macroeconomic deterioration in SA | Medium | Medium | Stress-tested model; capital buffer; flexible cost base |
| Currency volatility (USD-denominated tech contracts) | Medium | Low-Med | Multi-year hedging; ZAR-priced contracts where possible |
| Loss of key executive talent | Low | High | Attractive LTI plan; identified deputies for each C-suite role; succession plan |
| Operational outage / loadshedding impact | Medium | Medium | Multi-region cloud; battery + diesel branch backup; offline transaction support |
| Reputational incident | Low | Medium | Media training; crisis playbook; proactive transparency |
Table 19.1 — Principal risks, likelihood, impact, and mitigants.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of NovaBank SA (Pty) Ltd.