NovaBank SA — Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
The sensitivity and scenario analysis — base, upside and downside cases across customer growth, credit losses and cost assumptions.
Section 16 · Business Plan
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
The sensitivity and scenario analysis — base, upside and downside cases across customer growth, credit losses and cost assumptions.
The Company has stress-tested the financial model against the
principal value drivers — net interest margin, cost-to-income ratio,
customer growth pace, and credit losses. The results are consistent with
the Company’s view that the business model is robust across a wide range
of plausible outcomes.
16.1 ROE Sensitivity to Margin & Cost Ratio
16.2 Three-Scenario Analysis
| Metric (Year 5) | Bear Case | Base Case | Bull Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Customers (m) | 4.20 | 6.50 | 8.20 |
| Total Revenue (ZAR m) | 5,400 | 8,700 | 11,800 |
| Cost-to-Income Ratio | 47% | 38% | 33% |
| NPL Ratio | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% |
| Net Profit (ZAR m) | 850 | 2,340 | 3,800 |
| ROE | 14.5% | 31.8% | 44.0% |
| Equity IRR (5-Yr) | 16% | 28% | 39% |
| Year-5 Implied Valuation | ZAR 12.0bn | ZAR 21.5bn | ZAR 33.0bn |
16.3 Scenario Drivers
The bear case assumes: customer acquisition tracks 70% of plan; CPA
inflation of 25%; NIM compression of 75 bps below plan; and a stressed
credit loss path peaking at 9.5%. Despite these assumptions, the
business remains economically viable and continues to deliver positive
returns. The bull case assumes: 30% faster customer acquisition; NIM 50
bps above plan; cost discipline 5 percentage points better than base;
and benign credit conditions.
16.4 Stress Test — SARB Macro Stress
The Company has applied a stylised version of the SARB Macro Stress
Test scenario (severe recession, repo rate +400bps, currency
depreciation, employment shock). Under this stress, the CET1 ratio
bottoms at 11.6% in Year 3 — comfortably above the 8.0% regulatory
minimum and the SARB-prescribed Capital Conservation Buffer.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of NovaBank SA (Pty) Ltd.