Precision Coachworks Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact, with mitigations and the pre-committed trigger points adopted as board policy.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Structure
- 3. Accreditation and Compliance
- 4. How a Panel Shop Actually Makes Money
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations and the Capacity Build
- 7. Route to Market
- 8. Management and Governance
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Capacity Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
|
Risk |
Assessment |
Mitigation and residual position |
|---|---|---|
|
Failure to secure insurer panel listings |
Moderate likelihood, severe impact |
Accreditation sequenced before capital expansion; published insurer standards worked to explicitly; two panel listings targeted before the second booth is ordered |
|
Manufacturer approval not obtained |
Moderate likelihood, high impact |
Approvals pursued for two or three high-volume marques only; equipment and welding certification specified to approval standard from the outset rather than retrofitted |
|
Qualified panel beater and sprayer scarcity |
High likelihood, high impact |
Apprentice programme from Year 2 against the occupational qualifications; retention structured around productivity; the merSETA provider shortage from thirty centres to twelve makes in-house development necessary rather than optional |
|
Parts supply delays extending cycle time |
High likelihood, high impact |
Multiple suppliers per marque, early ordering on authorisation, stocked consumables line, and cycle time measured by stage |
|
Insurer rate and margin pressure |
High likelihood, moderate impact |
Non-insurer work grown to about 16% of volume at a premium; efficiency rather than rate as the margin defence |
|
Slow insurer settlement |
High likelihood, high impact |
Working capital sized at 52 debtor days against the debtor book rather than the equipment schedule; invoicing discipline immediately on release; disputes escalated within defined periods |
|
Rework and comeback |
Moderate likelihood, moderate impact |
Quality control gate before release, provision at 2.2% of labour and paint revenue, rework tracked by technician and by job type |
|
Environmental and air emission compliance |
Moderate likelihood, high impact |
Booth filtration maintained to specification, registered waste contractor, documented disposal, and compliance treated as a licence condition rather than an overhead |
D.1 Pre-committed trigger points
|
Point |
Trigger |
Committed response |
|---|---|---|
|
Month 8 |
SAMBRA structural grading not achieved |
Do not commit further capital. The accreditation stack is the business and the second booth is meaningless without it |
|
Month 14 |
Fewer than two insurer panel listings secured |
Hold at one booth and sixteen positions. A shop with equipment and no panel listings has fixed cost and no flow |
|
Year 2 |
No manufacturer approval granted |
Defer the second booth. In-warranty accident work is the higher-value volume the second booth is sized for |
|
Any month |
Key-to-key cycle time above 12 days after Year 2 |
Escalate by stage. Days are cheaper than equipment, and the floor is the binding constraint in every year of this plan |
|
Any month |
Debtor days above 65 |
Escalate to the insurer within defined periods. Working capital of R4.9m is larger than the second spray booth |
|
Year 3 |
Debt service cover below 1.30 times |
Defer floor position expansion and approach the financier before the covenant is tested |