Precision Coachworks Business Plan — Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
What moves Year 5 EBITDA: cycle time, utilisation, average repair value and gross margin, with downside, base and upside scenarios.
Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice and Basis of Preparation
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Market and Structure
- 3. Accreditation and Compliance
- 4. How a Panel Shop Actually Makes Money
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Operations and the Capacity Build
- 7. Route to Market
- 8. Management and Governance
- 9. Financial Plan
- 10. Break-Even and Debt Service
- 11. Investment Analysis
- 12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
- 13. Risk Analysis
- 14. Implementation Roadmap
- 15. Key Performance Indicators
- 16. Key Assumptions
- 17. Conclusion and Recommendation
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Capital and Capacity Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Funding, Debt and Working Capital Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 12.1 What moves Year 5 EBITDA
- 12.2 Scenarios
12.1 What moves Year 5 EBITDA
|
Driver |
Low (R) |
High (R) |
Swing (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Cycle time 13.0 to 8.5 days |
538 665 |
4 777 734 |
4 239 069 |
|
Average repair value ±12% |
2 712 603 |
5 489 677 |
2 777 074 |
|
Booth and floor utilisation 73% to 87% |
2 955 072 |
4 957 239 |
2 002 167 |
|
Overhead ±12% |
3 204 740 |
4 997 540 |
1 792 800 |
|
Parts margin 17% to 27% |
3 186 680 |
4 710 780 |
1 524 100 |
|
Labour margin 58% to 68% |
3 632 190 |
4 570 090 |
937 900 |
|
Base case Year 5 EBITDA |
4 101 000 |
Cycle time and average repair value dominate. Both are partly within management control: cycle time entirely so, and repair value through the mix of structural to non-structural work and the proportion of manufacturer-approved warranty repairs, which command higher values and stricter methods.
12.2 Scenarios
|
Downside |
Base |
Upside |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Key-to-key cycle time |
10.5 days |
9.0 days |
8.5 days |
|
Utilisation |
74% |
81% |
85% |
|
Other assumption |
Parts margin 4 points lower |
As modelled |
Average repair value 6% higher |
|
Year 5 EBITDA |
1 110 840 |
4 101 000 |
6 156 606 |
|
Year 5 EBITDA margin |
3.8% |
14.0% |
21.0% |
|
Year 5 profit after tax |
(835 431) |
2 038 374 |
3 073 545 |
The downside combination — cycle time slipping to 10.5 days, utilisation seven points lower and parts margin compressed four points — takes Year 5 EBITDA to R1.51 million and profit after tax to negative R0.43 million. The business survives, because the equipment and the accreditation retain value, but it does not turn inside the plan period and would require either a further equity injection or a restructuring of the facility.