Savanna Harvest Supermarket — Sensitivity Analysis

The following sensitivity analysis examines the impact of variations in key assumptions on the projected financial performance of Savanna Harvest Supermarket. The analysis focuses on Year 3 projections, which represent a stabilised operating period for the business.

Section 17 · Business Plan

Sensitivity Analysis

17.1 Revenue Sensitivity

Scenario	Revenue (R’000)	Gross Profit (R’000)	EBITDA (R’000)	Net Profit (R’000)
Base Case	65,000	17,550	7,475	3,515
Revenue −10%	58,500	15,795	5,720	2,235
Revenue −20%	52,000	14,040	3,965	955
Revenue +10%	71,500	19,305	9,230	4,796
Revenue +20%	78,000	21,060	10,985	6,076

17.2 Margin Sensitivity

Scenario	Gross Margin	EBITDA (R’000)	Net Profit (R’000)	Net Margin
Base Case	27.0%	7,475	3,515	5.4%
Gross Margin 24.0%	24.0%	5,525	2,091	3.2%
Gross Margin 22.0%	22.0%	4,225	1,142	1.8%
Gross Margin 29.0%	29.0%	8,775	4,464	6.9%
Gross Margin 30.0%	30.0%	9,425	4,939	7.6%

The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the business remains profitable under moderately adverse scenarios, with a break-even gross margin of approximately 21–22% at the base-case revenue level. A revenue decline of 20% from the base case still yields positive net income, indicating adequate resilience in the business model.

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