Springs Harvest Greenhouses — Sensitivity Analysis
The following sensitivity analysis examines the impact of variations in key assumptions on Year 3 financial performance, representing the first full year of stabilised operations with both Phase 1 and Phase 2 capacity.
Section 14 · Business Plan
Sensitivity Analysis
The following sensitivity analysis examines the impact of variations in key assumptions on Year 3 financial performance, representing the first full year of stabilised operations with both Phase 1 and Phase 2 capacity.
The following sensitivity analysis examines the impact of variations in key assumptions on Year 3 financial performance, representing the first full year of stabilised operations with both Phase 1 and Phase 2 capacity.
14.1 Revenue Sensitivity
| Scenario | Revenue (R’000) | Gross Profit (R’000) | EBITDA (R’000) | Net Profit (R’000) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 19,600 | 8,624 | 5,880 | 2,687 |
| Revenue −10% | 17,640 | 7,762 | 5,018 | 2,058 |
| Revenue −20% | 15,680 | 6,899 | 4,155 | 1,429 |
| Revenue +10% | 21,560 | 9,486 | 6,742 | 3,316 |
| Revenue +20% | 23,520 | 10,349 | 7,605 | 3,945 |
14.2 Gross Margin Sensitivity
| Scenario | Gross Margin | EBITDA (R’000) | Net Profit (R’000) | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 44.0% | 5,880 | 2,687 | 13.7% |
| Gross Margin 38.0% | 38.0% | 4,704 | 1,829 | 9.3% |
| Gross Margin 35.0% | 35.0% | 4,116 | 1,401 | 7.1% |
| Gross Margin 48.0% | 48.0% | 6,664 | 3,259 | 16.6% |
| Gross Margin 50.0% | 50.0% | 7,056 | 3,545 | 18.1% |
The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the business remains profitable under moderately adverse scenarios. A 20% revenue decline from the base case still yields positive net income of R1.4 million. The break-even gross margin at base-case revenue is approximately 32–33%, providing a meaningful buffer against cost pressures or pricing headwinds.
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