Thaba Goats Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact across production, market, financial and environmental risks with named mitigations.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The South African Goat Market
- 3. Why the Informal Market Matters More Than the Abattoir
- 4. Seasonality
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. The Five-Stage Roadmap and Gates
- 7. The Funding Ladder
- 8. Herd and Reproduction
- 9. Kid Mortality: The Industry's Named Constraint
- 10. Grazing, Land and Water
- 11. Animal Health
- 12. Route to Market
- 13. People and Operations
- 14. Regulation and Compliance
- 15. Unit Economics
- 16. Capital Expenditure
- 17. Financial Projections
- 18. Break-Even and Sensitivity
- 19. Risk Management
- 20. Implementation Timeline
- 21. Returns and Net Asset Value
- 22. Key Performance Indicators
- 23. Key Assumptions
- 24. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Stage Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Funding Application Checklist
- F. Appendix F: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likelihood |
Impact |
Mitigation |
Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Drought |
High |
Very High |
Stocking below 85% of assessed capacity; lick and feed budget that can be doubled; trader relationship able to take animals at short notice; followers sold before breeding does. Cash EBITDA falls to R30k in the modelled case. |
Founder |
|
Kid mortality above plan |
High |
High |
Kidding pens and supervision through the window; colostrum management; strategic dosing verified by faecal egg counts; vaccination. Five points is worth R89k a year at Year 5 scale. |
Founder |
|
Grazing outrun by the herd |
Medium |
Very High |
Camps fenced before the herd that will use them; independent written confirmation of capacity at Gates 3 and 4; stocking rate monitored against assessment. |
Founder |
|
Cash exhaustion while the herd grows |
High |
High |
Each stage raise sized to carry the stage; cash EBITDA reported alongside EBITDA; breeding does never sold to cover a shortfall. |
Founder |
|
Blended price below plan |
Medium |
High |
Two trader relationships as a floor; direct community and breeding stock channels; selling capacity held through the February trough. An 8% movement is worth R119k. |
Founder |
|
Grant funding delayed or refused |
High |
Medium |
Each stage separately sized so a delay defers an expansion rather than stranding a half-built camp; capital moratoria on every facility. |
Founder |
|
Stock theft |
High |
Medium |
Night kraaling, perimeter integrity, herding presence, registered branding and community relationships. Largely uninsurable at this scale. |
Founder and herder |
|
Disease introduction through purchased animals |
Medium |
High |
Twelve bucks bought across five years, each quarantined 21 days with a documented health history; no does bought after Stage 1. |
Founder and veterinarian |
|
Doe mortality above plan |
Medium |
High |
Condition scoring three times a cycle; parasite and foot programmes; each doe lost is breeding capacity, not a sale. |
Herder |
|
Records incomplete at a gate |
Low |
Very High |
Recorded daily from the day the first doe arrives; reviewed monthly; cannot be reconstructed after the fact. |
Founder |
|
Water failure |
Medium |
High |
Four water points by Year 5, the last solar-pumped; storage sized above daily requirement. |
Founder |
|
Founder incapacity |
Low |
High |
Supervisor appointed at Stage 5 able to run daily operations; a Gate 5 condition. |
Founder |