Thaba Goats Business Plan — Key Assumptions

Every reproduction, price, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, stated so a funder can test each one independently.

Key Assumptions

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  • 23.1 Herd and production
  • 23.2 Cost, capital and funding

23.1 Herd and production

Assumption

Year 1

Year 5

Basis

Breeding does at year end

50

300

Built by retention, not purchase

Kids weaned per doe

1.38

1.94

Rising with doe condition and kidding management

Kid survival to weaning

82%

91%

The industry’s named constraint; a gate condition at every stage

Doe mortality

6.0%

4.0%

Health programme, quarantine and condition scoring

Doelings retained

160

310 across five years; twelve bucks bought

Goats sold

39

426

Sales lag the herd because doelings are retained

Blended price per goat

R2 398

R3 292

Roughly half escalation, half channel mix

Kidding interval

Approximately eight months at maturity

Three kiddings in two years under good nutrition

Replacement rate

Approximately 18% of does a year

Covered from retained doelings

23.2 Cost, capital and funding

Assumption

Value

Basis

Direct costs

R52k in Year 1 rising to R412k

Grazing, licks, veterinary, marketing and transport; 23% of revenue at Year 5

Fixed cost base

R204k rising to R714k

Labour, owner remuneration, repairs, transport, administration, security, insurance

Owner remuneration

R72k rising to R216k

A real cost from Stage 1, deducted before EBITDA

Total capital deployed

R2 449 000

Infrastructure R1 962k, livestock R188k, working capital R299k

Depreciation

Twenty-year straight line on infrastructure only

Fencing, water, kraals, shelters, handling and transport

Founder capital

R250 000

Contributed at Stage 1

Grant funding, targeted

R1 370 000

NYDA and the Blended Finance Scheme via Land Bank

Staged loans

R2 470 000

SEDFA at approximately 11%, Land Bank blended at approximately 7%, expansion at approximately 9%

Capital moratoria

One to two years from each drawdown

Reflects the eighteen-month lag from doe to saleable kid

Corporate income tax

27% of taxable profit

Assessed losses carried forward under the section 20 limitation

Next section24. Conclusion