Thaba Goats Business Plan — Key Assumptions
Every reproduction, price, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, stated so a funder can test each one independently.
Key Assumptions
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The South African Goat Market
- 3. Why the Informal Market Matters More Than the Abattoir
- 4. Seasonality
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. The Five-Stage Roadmap and Gates
- 7. The Funding Ladder
- 8. Herd and Reproduction
- 9. Kid Mortality: The Industry's Named Constraint
- 10. Grazing, Land and Water
- 11. Animal Health
- 12. Route to Market
- 13. People and Operations
- 14. Regulation and Compliance
- 15. Unit Economics
- 16. Capital Expenditure
- 17. Financial Projections
- 18. Break-Even and Sensitivity
- 19. Risk Management
- 20. Implementation Timeline
- 21. Returns and Net Asset Value
- 22. Key Performance Indicators
- 23. Key Assumptions
- 24. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Stage Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Funding Application Checklist
- F. Appendix F: Glossary
- 23.1 Herd and production
- 23.2 Cost, capital and funding
23.1 Herd and production
|
Assumption |
Year 1 |
Year 5 |
Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Breeding does at year end |
50 |
300 |
Built by retention, not purchase |
|
Kids weaned per doe |
1.38 |
1.94 |
Rising with doe condition and kidding management |
|
Kid survival to weaning |
82% |
91% |
The industry’s named constraint; a gate condition at every stage |
|
Doe mortality |
6.0% |
4.0% |
Health programme, quarantine and condition scoring |
|
Doelings retained |
— |
160 |
310 across five years; twelve bucks bought |
|
Goats sold |
39 |
426 |
Sales lag the herd because doelings are retained |
|
Blended price per goat |
R2 398 |
R3 292 |
Roughly half escalation, half channel mix |
|
Kidding interval |
Approximately eight months at maturity |
Three kiddings in two years under good nutrition |
|
|
Replacement rate |
Approximately 18% of does a year |
Covered from retained doelings |
23.2 Cost, capital and funding
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Direct costs |
R52k in Year 1 rising to R412k |
Grazing, licks, veterinary, marketing and transport; 23% of revenue at Year 5 |
|
Fixed cost base |
R204k rising to R714k |
Labour, owner remuneration, repairs, transport, administration, security, insurance |
|
Owner remuneration |
R72k rising to R216k |
A real cost from Stage 1, deducted before EBITDA |
|
Total capital deployed |
R2 449 000 |
Infrastructure R1 962k, livestock R188k, working capital R299k |
|
Depreciation |
Twenty-year straight line on infrastructure only |
Fencing, water, kraals, shelters, handling and transport |
|
Founder capital |
R250 000 |
Contributed at Stage 1 |
|
Grant funding, targeted |
R1 370 000 |
NYDA and the Blended Finance Scheme via Land Bank |
|
Staged loans |
R2 470 000 |
SEDFA at approximately 11%, Land Bank blended at approximately 7%, expansion at approximately 9% |
|
Capital moratoria |
One to two years from each drawdown |
Reflects the eighteen-month lag from doe to saleable kid |
|
Corporate income tax |
27% of taxable profit |
Assessed losses carried forward under the section 20 limitation |