Vulcan Flame Grill Business Plan › Section 18 › Financial Plan

This section presents the integrated five-year financial projections.
Headline revenue and EBITDA are the sponsor’s; all derived metrics — net
profit, the balance sheet, cash flow, debt-service coverage and returns
— have been independently re-derived on a deliberately conservative
basis. The three-statement model balances to zero in every projection
year.

18.1 Key modelling assumptions

Table 22. Principal assumptions underpinning the financial
model.

18.2 Capital requirements & funding

The R85 million programme funds franchise fees, store fit-outs,
kitchen equipment, technology, working capital, marketing launch and a
contingency reserve. It is funded by a blend of institutional equity,
senior debt and founder capital.

Table 23. Use of funds.

Figure 4.

Table 24. Source of funds.

Figure 5.

18.3 Revenue model & operating cost structure

Revenue rises from R34m in Year 1 to R248m in Year 5 as the network
scales to twelve stores and the format mix shifts toward higher-volume
sites. The implied mature average unit volume of roughly R20.7 million
per store is demanding relative to the Steers benchmark of approximately
R12–R15 million — the single most important assumption in this Plan.

Table 25. Revenue-to-EBITDA build (four-wall vs group).

Table 26. Key operating ratios.

Figure 6.

18.4 Projected income statement

Net profit is re-derived conservatively: full depreciation and
amortisation, full financing cost net of interest income on surplus
cash, and 27% corporate tax with assessed-loss carry-forward.

Table 27. Projected income statement (base case, conservative
re-derivation).

Table 28. Net margin and comparison to sponsor figures.

Figure 7.

18.5 Projected balance sheet

The balance sheet ties to zero in every year. Asset growth is driven
by the deployment of store fit-outs and kitchen equipment and by
accumulating cash; the liability side reflects the amortising senior
facility and growing retained earnings.

Table 29. Projected balance sheet (R million). Balances tie to
zero each year.

Figure 8.

18.6 Projected cash flow statement

Operating cash flow turns strongly positive as the network matures,
comfortably funding the later expansion waves and building a substantial
liquidity buffer by Year 5.

Table 30. Projected cash flow statement (R million).

Figure 9.

18.7 Debt schedule & debt-service coverage

Table 31. Senior debt schedule (R million).

Table 32. Debt-service coverage (base case).

Figure 10.

18.8 Scenario & sensitivity analysis

Because the binding risk is top-line, the model is stressed primarily
on volume. Two downside cases are presented: a conservative case (18%
AUV haircut, 150bps margin compression) and a severe stress case
(rollout delayed to eight stores, 30% revenue shortfall, 300bps margin
compression).

Table 33. Year 5 outcomes across three scenarios.

Figure 11.

Figure 12.

18.9 Year 1 monthly profile

Year 1 is the highest-risk period, as three stores open sequentially
and ramp to maturity. The monthly profile below illustrates the cash
trajectory underpinning the working-capital and contingency
provisions.

Table 35. Year 1 monthly revenue and EBITDA build (R
million).

Figure 13.

18.10 Investor returns

Equity returns are modelled on the phased equity draw (R55 million
total) with an exit at Year 5 on an EV/EBITDA basis, net of residual
debt. A sensitivity across exit multiples is presented for both the base
and conservative cases.

Table 36. Modelled equity IRR and multiple by exit EV/EBITDA
multiple.

Figure 14.

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Vulcan Flame Grill Holdings (Pty) Ltd.