Umthombo Springs Business Plan — Series A Funding Adequacy

Because Series B is targeted for month 24, the Series A round must fund the entire first two years of the business, construction, commissioning, the…

Series A Funding Adequacy

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Because Series B is targeted for month 24, the Series A round must fund the entire first two years of the business, construction, commissioning, the domestic launch, two years of operating losses, interest on the asset finance and the working capital that a growing trading business consumes. This section tests whether R48 million is sufficient for that period.

Figure 13. Series A cash requirement to month 24 against the round raised.

Requirement to month 24

Amount

Basis

Capital expenditure

R36.5m

PET line, site and building, source development, water treatment, utilities, laboratory and warehouse

Operating burn (Years 1–2)

R9.6m

Negative EBITDA of R8.0m in Year 1 and R1.6m in Year 2, as projected

Interest

R3.5m

Net finance cost of R1.4m and R2.1m as projected

Working capital build

R8.8m

45 days of debtors and 30 days of stock on Year-2 revenue of R52.7m

Total requirement

R58.4m

Series A raised

R48.0m

R30.0m equity plus R18.0m asset finance

Shortfall

R10.4m

Key findingThe Series A round appears to fall roughly R8 to R10 million short of the period it must fund

Adding the Plan’s own figures for the twenty-four months before Series B gives a requirement of approximately R58.4 million against R48.0 million raised. Even taking the narrower view that working capital is limited to the R6.5 million the use-of-funds table allocates to working capital and contingency, which would require the business to fund a ramp from R13.7 million to R52.7 million of revenue on that amount, the requirement is R56.1 million and the shortfall R8.1 million. Note also that the R6.5 million line is described as working capital *and contingency*, so the true contingency on a R36.5 million construction programme is thinner still. Three resolutions are available: increase Series A, bring Series B forward, or arrange a working capital facility against domestic debtors alongside the round. The Company should state which it intends, because a business that runs out of cash in month twenty-two raises Series B on terms set by necessity rather than by proof, which would defeat the entire purpose of the staged structure.

Analyst flagThe Series B timing assumption is load-bearing in a way the Plan does not fully surface

The elegance of the two-round structure depends on Series B arriving on schedule and on favourable terms, which in turn depends on the Series A milestones being met. Those milestones include FSSC 22000 certification, which the Plan itself acknowledges requires a meaningful period of production records before a certification body will act. If commissioning slips by a quarter, certification slips with it, and the Series B milestone gate moves, while the cash requirement does not. The Company should model the cash position under a six-month Series B delay and state what bridge is available. On the figures above, there is no headroom to absorb one.