Umthombo Springs Business Plan — Annexure G: Detailed Risk Register
Independent hydrogeological assessment; monitoring boreholes; conservative abstraction; automatic reduction protocol
Annexure G: Detailed Risk Register
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- Overview & contents
- Important Notice & Disclaimer
- Executive Summary
- The Company & the Water Source
- Market Analysis
- Products & Unit Economics
- Production & Operations
- Route to Market
- Quality, Certification & Compliance
- Sustainability & Water Stewardship
- Transformation & Community
- Management & Governance
- The Two-Series Funding Structure
- Series A Funding Adequacy
- Implementation Roadmap
- Competitive Positioning
- Financial Plan & Projections
- Capital Structure & Dilution
- Investor Returns & Sensitivity
- Risk Analysis & Independent Findings
- SWOT & Strategic Analysis
- Exit Strategy
- Key Performance Indicators
- Conclusion & The Investment Ask
- Annexure A: Detailed Financial Statements
- Annexure B: Assumptions Book
- Annexure C: Scenario & Sensitivity Detail
- Annexure D: Export Operations Manual
- Annexure E: Regulatory & Certification Register
- Annexure F: Series A & B Term Framework
- Annexure G: Detailed Risk Register
- Annexure H: Data Room Index
- Annexure I: Glossary & Investor Questions
|
Risk |
Likelihood |
Impact |
Mitigation |
Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Spring yield below assessment |
Low |
Very High |
Independent hydrogeological assessment; monitoring boreholes; conservative abstraction; automatic reduction protocol |
Chairperson / COO |
|
Water use licence conditions tightened |
Low |
High |
Conservative abstraction; full compliance record; catchment protection exceeding requirements |
CEO |
|
Series A insufficient to month 24 |
Medium |
High |
Increase round, bring Series B forward, or arrange a working capital facility |
CFO |
|
Series B not raised on terms |
Medium |
High |
Milestones defined and dated; monthly cash runway reporting with a defined trigger |
CEO / CFO |
|
Commissioning delay |
Medium |
Medium |
Experienced COO; supplier installation and performance guarantees; contingency |
COO |
|
FSSC 22000 certification delay |
Medium |
High |
Consultants appointed early; programme begins month 14; SADC PET proceeds on lighter certification |
COO |
|
Destination registration refused or delayed |
Low |
Medium |
Multiple markets pursued in parallel; no single market exceeds 20% of the export plan |
Export Director |
|
PET resin and glass price inflation |
High |
Medium |
Annual supply agreements; light-weighting; domestic glass sourcing; six-monthly price review |
COO / CFO |
|
Sea freight cost or capacity shock |
Medium |
Medium |
FOB terms on most volume; two forwarder relationships; premium margin absorbs moderate increases |
Export Director |
|
Export receivable default |
Medium |
Medium |
Letters of credit for new markets; export credit insurance; open account only on payment history |
CFO |
|
Domestic price competition |
High |
Medium |
Domestic treated as fixed-cost absorption; regional and channel focus, not national grocery contest |
CEO |
|
Sustained rand strength |
Medium |
Medium |
Structural exposure is favourable; forward cover on confirmed orders only |
CFO |
|
Water quality incident |
Low |
Very High |
Batch hold-and-release; accredited laboratory; full traceability; product liability insurance |
COO |
|
Catchment encroachment or contamination |
Low |
Very High |
Fenced protection zone; conservation servitude; quarterly inspection; community stewardship programme |
COO |
|
Key-person loss |
Medium |
Medium |
Employee option pool; documented processes; board depth |
Board |