Umthombo Springs Business Plan — Annexure B: Assumptions Book

Assumption Value Basis Domestic PET price / cost / margin R3.80 / R2.13 / R1.67 43.9% gross margin; held flat across the projection Export PET price / cost…

Annexure B: Assumptions Book

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Assumption

Value

Basis

Domestic PET price / cost / margin

R3.80 / R2.13 / R1.67

43.9% gross margin; held flat across the projection

Export PET price / cost / margin

R7.00 / R3.50 / R3.50

50.0% gross margin; FOB or delivered by road

Export glass price / cost / margin

R20.50 / R9.23 / R11.27

55.0% gross margin; FOB Durban

Glass packaging share of FOB price

27.3%

R5.60 of a R20.50 FOB price; import-linked

Capacity post Series A

~14m litres p.a.

12,000 bph PET line at two shifts

Capacity post Series B

~34m litres p.a.

Premium glass line plus PET uplift

Volume ramp

3.6 → 31.1m litres

Domestic 3.6→18.0; export PET 0→10.5; export glass 0→2.6

Export share of revenue

0% → 65%

Mix shift is the entire margin story

Series A

R48.0m

R30.0m equity at R36.0m pre-money; R18.0m asset finance

Series B

R85.0m

R60.0m equity at R135.0m pre-money; R25.0m debt; month 24

Step-up between rounds

2.05x

R135.0m pre-money on R66.0m post-money

Employee option pool

10% at Series A

Diluted to 6.9% after Series B

Exit assumption

12x Year-5 EBITDA

Less R30m net debt; equity value R439m

Price and cost escalation

None modelled

Constant Year-1 prices on both sides — see Section 15

Net finance cost

R1.4m → R3.5m

On R18m asset finance and R25m Series B debt

Water-use ratio target

< 1.35 l abstracted per litre bottled

Closed-loop rinse recovery and CIP recycling