Khanya Eggs Business Plan — Flock Performance
Lay rate, mortality, culling and the flock cycle assumptions that drive every revenue line in the model.
Flock Performance
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- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The South African Egg Market
- 3. Avian Influenza: The Risk That Defines This Business
- 4. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 5. The Five-Stage Roadmap
- 6. The Funding Ladder
- 7. Flock Performance
- 8. Feed Strategy
- 9. Point-of-Lay Pullet Sourcing
- 10. Biosecurity
- 11. Route to Market and Pricing
- 12. Operations and People
- 13. Regulation and Compliance
- 14. Unit Economics
- 15. Capital Expenditure
- 16. Financial Projections
- 17. Break-Even
- 18. Sensitivity and the Grant Question
- 19. Risk Management
- 20. Implementation Roadmap
- 21. Returns
- 22. Key Performance Indicators
- 23. Key Assumptions
- 24. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Stage Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Funding Application Checklist
- F. Appendix F: Glossary
- 7.1 What drives the curve
- 7.2 Mortality and the flock cycle
Everything in this plan derives from four production numbers: how many birds are in lay, how many eggs each lays, how many of those are saleable, and how many birds are lost along the way.
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Birds at year end |
500 |
2 000 |
6 000 |
15 000 |
30 000 |
|
Average hens in lay |
330 |
1 300 |
3 900 |
9 800 |
21 000 |
|
Eggs sold, thousands |
87 |
358 |
1 106 |
2 845 |
6 184 |
|
Eggs per hen per year |
264 |
275 |
284 |
290 |
295 |
|
Hen-day production |
72.2% |
75.5% |
77.7% |
79.5% |
80.7% |
|
Stage gate requirement |
74% |
78% |
80% |
80% |
80% |
|
Trays sold |
2 900 |
11 933 |
36 867 |
94 833 |
206 133 |
Hen-day production rises from 72.2 per cent in Stage 1 to 80.7 per cent by Stage 5, a path that is realistic for an operator learning the business and still below the 85 per cent-plus achieved by leading commercial layer units. The gate conditions are set slightly ahead of the modelled outcome at each stage, which is deliberate: an operator who cannot beat the model does not get the next tranche.
7.1 What drives the curve
- Pullet quality on arrival. A point-of-lay pullet that arrives underweight or unevenly reared never reaches peak production. Section 9 treats supplier selection as the primary lever on this line.
- Feeding consistency. A layer that runs short of feed or water for a day drops out of lay and takes a week to return. Automated drinkers and feed lines arrive at Stage 4 for exactly this reason.
- Lighting programme. Photoperiod controls the onset and persistence of lay. A disciplined lighting programme is the cheapest single intervention available and is in place from Stage 1.
- Temperature and ventilation. Heat stress reduces both lay rate and shell quality. House design and stocking density matter more than any input bought afterwards.
- Culling discipline. Non-layers eat as much as layers. Regular assessment and removal of non-productive birds raises hen-day production and reduces feed cost simultaneously.
7.2 Mortality and the flock cycle
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mortality assumption |
10% |
8% |
7.5% |
7% |
6% |
|
Stage gate requirement |
Below 10% |
Below 8% |
Below 7.5% |
— |
— |
|
Spent hen revenue (R’000) |
10 |
44 |
141 |
373 |
792 |
|
Pullet cost (R’000) |
68 |
238 |
670 |
1 542 |
2 901 |
|
Pullet cost per bird placed, R |
136 |
142 |
148 |
155 |
162 |
A laying cycle runs roughly seventy-two weeks from point of lay, after which the flock is sold as spent hens and replaced. Spent hen revenue rises from R10 000 to R792 000 across the plan and is a real, if modest, offset to the pullet cost. Mortality falling from 10 per cent to 6 per cent is worth approximately R480 000 of Year 5 gross margin, each percentage point is around R120 000.