Khanya Eggs Business Plan — Appendix D: Risk Register
Detailed risk register scoring likelihood and impact across disease, market, financial and operational risks with named mitigations.
Appendix D: Risk Register
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. The South African Egg Market
- 3. Avian Influenza: The Risk That Defines This Business
- 4. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 5. The Five-Stage Roadmap
- 6. The Funding Ladder
- 7. Flock Performance
- 8. Feed Strategy
- 9. Point-of-Lay Pullet Sourcing
- 10. Biosecurity
- 11. Route to Market and Pricing
- 12. Operations and People
- 13. Regulation and Compliance
- 14. Unit Economics
- 15. Capital Expenditure
- 16. Financial Projections
- 17. Break-Even
- 18. Sensitivity and the Grant Question
- 19. Risk Management
- 20. Implementation Roadmap
- 21. Returns
- 22. Key Performance Indicators
- 23. Key Assumptions
- 24. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Stage Capital Schedules
- C. Appendix C: Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Funding Application Checklist
- F. Appendix F: Glossary
|
Risk |
Likelihood |
Impact |
Mitigation |
Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Highly pathogenic avian influenza |
Medium |
Very High |
Eight houses of differing ages from Stage 5 so one event costs 12.5% of the flock; biosecurity funded from Stage 1; vaccination budgeted throughout at roughly R1.50 per shot; restocking reserve of approximately R500 000 from Stage 4. Uninsured and uncompensated in South Africa. |
Founder and retained veterinarian |
|
Feed price increase |
High |
High |
Purchasing ladder from bagged to bulk to contracted to on-farm milling; R620 000 mill at Stage 5. A 10% movement is worth R597 000 of Year 5 EBITDA. |
Founder |
|
Egg price below plan |
Medium |
Very High |
Direct and local trade held at 57% of Stage 5 volume; blended price modelled flat in nominal terms. A 5% movement is worth R869 000 of Year 5 EBITDA. |
Founder |
|
Hen-day production below plan |
Medium |
High |
Gate conditions at every stage set ahead of the model; pullet quality controls in Section 9; automated feed and water from Stage 4. |
Farm manager |
|
Grant funding delayed or refused |
High |
Medium |
Each stage sized so a delayed grant defers a stage rather than stranding a half-built one; full no-grant case in Section 18.3 shows 3.23x debt cover. |
Founder |
|
Operator capacity exceeded |
Medium |
High |
Five gates, each requiring documented production and financial evidence before the next tranche is drawn. |
Founder |
|
Pullet supplier failure |
Medium |
High |
Two accredited rearers from Stage 3; written delivery commitment held before a house is completed; eighteen-week lead time. |
Founder |
|
Mortality above assumption |
Medium |
Medium |
Gate conditions of 10%, 8% and 7.5%; each percentage point is roughly R120 000 of Year 5 gross margin. |
Farm manager |
|
Loss of the direct channel |
Medium |
High |
Fixed weekly rounds; grading from Stage 3; wholesale contracted as a release valve rather than depended on. A 10-point shift is worth R520 000. |
Founder |
|
Wholesale customer concentration |
Medium |
Medium |
No single customer above a defined share of volume or receivables; credit limits reviewed quarterly. |
Sales and accounts |
|
Water or power interruption |
Medium |
Medium |
Borehole and storage upgrade at Stage 3; solar and battery at Stage 4; standby generator at Stage 5. |
Farm manager |
|
Records incomplete at a gate |
Low |
Very High |
Daily recording by house from the day the first pullet arrives; records cannot be reconstructed after the fact. |
Founder |