Umthombo Springs Business Plan — Annexure B: Assumptions Book
Assumption Value Basis Domestic PET price / cost / margin R3.80 / R2.13 / R1.67 43.9% gross margin; held flat across the projection Export PET price / cost…
Annexure B: Assumptions Book
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- Overview & contents
- Important Notice & Disclaimer
- Executive Summary
- The Company & the Water Source
- Market Analysis
- Products & Unit Economics
- Production & Operations
- Route to Market
- Quality, Certification & Compliance
- Sustainability & Water Stewardship
- Transformation & Community
- Management & Governance
- The Two-Series Funding Structure
- Series A Funding Adequacy
- Implementation Roadmap
- Competitive Positioning
- Financial Plan & Projections
- Capital Structure & Dilution
- Investor Returns & Sensitivity
- Risk Analysis & Independent Findings
- SWOT & Strategic Analysis
- Exit Strategy
- Key Performance Indicators
- Conclusion & The Investment Ask
- Annexure A: Detailed Financial Statements
- Annexure B: Assumptions Book
- Annexure C: Scenario & Sensitivity Detail
- Annexure D: Export Operations Manual
- Annexure E: Regulatory & Certification Register
- Annexure F: Series A & B Term Framework
- Annexure G: Detailed Risk Register
- Annexure H: Data Room Index
- Annexure I: Glossary & Investor Questions
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Domestic PET price / cost / margin |
R3.80 / R2.13 / R1.67 |
43.9% gross margin; held flat across the projection |
|
Export PET price / cost / margin |
R7.00 / R3.50 / R3.50 |
50.0% gross margin; FOB or delivered by road |
|
Export glass price / cost / margin |
R20.50 / R9.23 / R11.27 |
55.0% gross margin; FOB Durban |
|
Glass packaging share of FOB price |
27.3% |
R5.60 of a R20.50 FOB price; import-linked |
|
Capacity post Series A |
~14m litres p.a. |
12,000 bph PET line at two shifts |
|
Capacity post Series B |
~34m litres p.a. |
Premium glass line plus PET uplift |
|
Volume ramp |
3.6 → 31.1m litres |
Domestic 3.6→18.0; export PET 0→10.5; export glass 0→2.6 |
|
Export share of revenue |
0% → 65% |
Mix shift is the entire margin story |
|
Series A |
R48.0m |
R30.0m equity at R36.0m pre-money; R18.0m asset finance |
|
Series B |
R85.0m |
R60.0m equity at R135.0m pre-money; R25.0m debt; month 24 |
|
Step-up between rounds |
2.05x |
R135.0m pre-money on R66.0m post-money |
|
Employee option pool |
10% at Series A |
Diluted to 6.9% after Series B |
|
Exit assumption |
12x Year-5 EBITDA |
Less R30m net debt; equity value R439m |
|
Price and cost escalation |
None modelled |
Constant Year-1 prices on both sides — see Section 15 |
|
Net finance cost |
R1.4m → R3.5m |
On R18m asset finance and R25m Series B debt |
|
Water-use ratio target |
< 1.35 l abstracted per litre bottled |
Closed-loop rinse recovery and CIP recycling |