Business Plan Africa Investor-Ready Plans

Umthombo Springs Business Plan — Annexure C: Scenario & Sensitivity Detail

C.1 Returns by exit multiple Exit multiple Equity value Series A MOIC Series A IRR Series B MOIC Series B IRR Founders MOIC 8x R283m 2.97x 24.3% 1.45x…

Annexure C: Scenario & Sensitivity Detail

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C.1 Returns by exit multiple

Exit multiple	Equity value	Series A MOIC	Series A IRR	Series B MOIC	Series B IRR	Founders MOIC
8x	R283m	2.97x	24.3%	1.45x	13.2%	9.7x
10x	R361m	3.79x	30.5%	1.85x	22.8%	12.4x
12x (as stated)	R439m	4.61x	35.8%	2.26x	31.1%	15x
14x	R517m	5.43x	40.3%	2.66x	38.5%	17.7x

C.2 Without Series B — EBITDA at the 14 million litre ceiling

Mix	Volume	Gross profit	Operating cost	EBITDA	vs asset finance service R5.0m
Domestic only	14 Ml	R23.4m	R27.4m	R(4.0)m	Does not cover
Domestic 10 + export PET 4	14 Ml	R30.7m	R27.4m	R3.3m	Does not cover
Domestic 8 + export PET 6	14 Ml	R34.4m	R27.4m	R7.0m	Covers

C.3 Cost escalation with prices held flat

Annual cost escalation	Year-5 cost of goods	Year-5 operating expenses	Year-5 EBITDA
0%	R99.1m	R57.0m	R39.1m
3%	R111.5m	R64.2m	R19.5m
5%	R120.5m	R69.3m	R5.4m

C.4 Single-variable sensitivity (Series A IRR)

Driver	Adverse case	Base	Favourable case
Exit multiple 8x / 14x	24.3%	35.8%	40.3%
Export glass volume -30% / +25%	28.5%	35.8%	40.8%
Premium glass price -15% / +10%	29.2%	35.8%	39.5%
Glass input cost +20%	32.0%	35.8%	35.8%
Domestic volume -25% / +15%	29.7%	35.8%	39.0%

C.5 Scenarios

Scenario	Definition	Series A IRR
Downside	Export glass volume −40%, premium price −10%, exit at 8x	11.4%
Base	As modelled, exit at 12x	35.8%
Upside	Export glass volume +30%, premium price +10%, exit at 14x	50.6%