Sireletso Protective Group Business Plan — Key Assumptions
Every rate, wage, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, stated so an investor can test each one independently.
Key Assumptions
Jump to section
- Overview & contents
- i. Important Notice
- 1. Executive Summary
- 2. Transaction and Funding Summary
- 3. Business Overview
- 4. Market Analysis
- 5. SWOT and Competitive Position
- 6. Service Offering and Revenue Model
- 7. Operations
- 8. Regulatory and Compliance Framework
- 9. Business Development and Client Acquisition
- 10. Management and Organisation
- 11. Financial Projections
- 12. Working Capital: The Central Finding
- 13. Funding Structure and Debt Service
- 14. Break-Even
- 15. Sensitivity and Scenarios
- 16. Risk Management
- 17. Implementation Roadmap
- 18. Investment Returns
- 19. Key Performance Indicators
- 20. Key Assumptions
- 21. Conclusion
- A. Appendix A: Consolidated Financial Summary
- B. Appendix B: Application and Sources of Funds
- C. Appendix C: Debt Schedules
- D. Appendix D: Risk Register
- E. Appendix E: Glossary
- 20.1 Revenue and margin
- 20.2 Capital, funding and working capital
20.1 Revenue and margin
|
Assumption |
Year 1 |
Year 5 |
Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
R34.08m |
R107.17m |
Built from deployed volumes and billed rates by service line |
|
Average deployed personnel |
71 |
168 |
A 24-hour principal consumes four to five officers |
|
Revenue per deployed officer |
R480 000 |
R638 000 |
Rises as mix shifts toward advisory and higher-rate work |
|
Blended gross margin |
38.5% |
37.5% |
Compressing 20 basis points a year on the wage differential |
|
Contract rate escalation |
6.0% a year |
6.0% |
Negotiated linkage to the wage determination where possible |
|
Direct labour escalation |
6.7% a year |
6.7% |
Sectoral determination and bargaining council settlements |
|
Advisory revenue share |
Building |
11% of revenue |
72% gross margin; consumes almost no deployed headcount |
|
Residential revenue share |
Held flat |
8% of revenue |
26% margin; retained defensively, grown slowest |
20.2 Capital, funding and working capital
|
Assumption |
Value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Total funding requirement |
R26.56m |
R16.49m fixed assets, R2.67m pre-opening, R7.40m working capital reserve |
|
Equity subscription |
R11.952m (45.0%) |
Ordinary shares, fully subscribed at financial close |
|
Senior term loan |
R14.608m (55.0%) |
13.75%, 84 months, 18-month capital moratorium |
|
Invoice discounting facility |
Up to R12.00m at 15.0% |
65% advance against eligible debtors; bounded by the book |
|
Pre-opening and accreditation |
R2.67m charged to Year 1 income |
Period cost; PSIRA and firearm licensing, SASSETA accreditation, vetting, formation |
|
Debtor days |
62 days |
Against 30-day contractual terms; the covenant is 75 |
|
Maintenance capital expenditure |
R0.60m rising to R2.80m |
Fleet replacement cycle and systems |
|
Corporate income tax |
27% of taxable profit |
Assessed losses carried forward under the section 20 limitation |
|
Exit multiple |
5.0 times Year 5 EBITDA |
Tested from 3.5 to 6.0 times in Section 18 |
|
Hurdle rate |
22% |
The discount rate against which net present value is stated |