Sireletso Protective Group Business Plan — Executive Summary

Specialist close protection and executive risk services from Sandton: R26.56m funding, R107.17m Year 5 revenue at a 13.2% EBITDA margin.

Executive Summary

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  • 1.1 The proposition
  • 1.2 Why this opportunity exists
  • 1.3 Financial summary
  • 1.4 Investment conclusion

1.1 The proposition

Sireletso Protective Group (Pty) Ltd proposes to establish a specialist close protection and executive risk services business headquartered in Sandton, Johannesburg. The Company will provide dedicated and ad-hoc close protection details, protective driving, residential protection for principals, risk advisory and threat assessment, high-risk escort work, and accredited close protection training through its own academy.

The Company is positioned deliberately at the specialist end of the private security market. It will not compete in commoditised contract guarding, where margins are compressed by sectoral wage determination and by scale players with cost bases the Company cannot match. It will compete on the quality, vetting and training of protective personnel, on operational discipline, and on the ability to combine physical protection with credible threat analysis.

R26.56m

Total funding required

R107.17m

Year 5 revenue

13.2%

Year 5 EBITDA margin

38.5%

Equity IRR over five years

1.2 Why this opportunity exists

  • Persistent violent crime against high-value individuals. South Africa’s rates of aggravated robbery, kidnapping for ransom and residential home invasion have created sustained demand for protective services among corporate executives, high-net-worth individuals, political principals and visiting business delegations. Published industry analysis records a 30 per cent annual increase in kidnappings targeting employees and a 14 per cent rise in commercial vehicle hijackings, and kidnapping for ransom in particular has moved from a peripheral concern to a board-level risk for listed companies operating in Gauteng.
  • A fragmented and quality-variable supply side. PSIRA registers over 11 370 security businesses and 2.7 million individual officers, of whom roughly 580 000 are actively employed. The number capable of delivering genuinely professional close protection — properly vetted officers, current firearm competency, medical capability, structured journey management and threat assessment — is a small fraction of that. The gap between the number of firms that claim close protection capability and the number that can demonstrate it is the commercial opening this plan addresses.
  • Corporate governance and duty of care. Listed companies and multinationals operating in South Africa face duty-of-care obligations toward travelling executives that increasingly require a documented, auditable protective arrangement rather than an informal one. This shifts procurement toward providers who can produce compliance records, insurance cover and formal risk assessments — which favours a properly capitalised operator over an owner-driver arrangement.
Revenue build by service line, Years 1 to 5
Figure 1. Revenue build by service line, Years 1 to 5.

1.3 Financial summary

R million

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Revenue

34.08

65.60

80.96

94.76

107.17

Gross profit

13.13

25.18

30.88

35.86

40.20

Gross margin

38.5%

38.4%

38.1%

37.8%

37.5%

Operating expenditure

(14.53)

(18.96)

(21.74)

(24.05)

(26.09)

EBITDA

(1.40)

6.22

9.14

11.81

14.11

EBITDA margin

-4.1%

9.5%

11.3%

12.5%

13.2%

Profit / (loss) after tax

(9.44)

(0.03)

2.17

4.55

6.02

Trade debtors

5.79

11.14

13.75

16.10

18.20

Debtor facility drawn

3.76

7.24

8.94

10.46

11.83

Closing cash

1.31

0.34

1.35

4.41

8.77

Average deployed personnel

71

126

145

158

168

EBITDA and EBITDA margin progression
Figure 2. EBITDA and EBITDA margin progression.

Three features of this profile deserve emphasis at the outset. The business is loss-making at the EBITDA line in Year 1 and only marginally profit-making after tax in Year 2. Its EBITDA margin stabilises in the low teens, which is characteristic of the sector and leaves limited absorption capacity for cost shocks. And the growth in trade debtors, reaching R18.20 million by Year 5, is the dominant call on cash across the entire projection period.

1.4 Investment conclusion

Measure

Value

Comment

Total funding required

R26.56m

R16.49m fixed assets, R2.67m pre-opening, R7.40m working capital reserve

Equity subscription

R11.95m (45.0%)

Ordinary shares, fully subscribed at financial close

Senior term loan

R14.61m (55.0%)

13.75%, 84 months, 18-month capital moratorium

Invoice discounting facility

Up to R12.00m

15.0%, revolving, 65% advance against eligible debtors

Project IRR to Year 5

23.1%

Inclusive of a terminal value at 5.0x exit-year EBITDA

Equity IRR to Year 5

38.5%

On a terminal equity value of R60.88m

Project NPV at 22%

R1.44m

Marginally positive at the hurdle rate