Sireletso Protective Group Business Plan — Key Assumptions

Every rate, wage, cost, capital and funding assumption behind the model, stated so an investor can test each one independently.

Key Assumptions

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  • 20.1 Revenue and margin
  • 20.2 Capital, funding and working capital

20.1 Revenue and margin

Assumption

Year 1

Year 5

Basis

Revenue

R34.08m

R107.17m

Built from deployed volumes and billed rates by service line

Average deployed personnel

71

168

A 24-hour principal consumes four to five officers

Revenue per deployed officer

R480 000

R638 000

Rises as mix shifts toward advisory and higher-rate work

Blended gross margin

38.5%

37.5%

Compressing 20 basis points a year on the wage differential

Contract rate escalation

6.0% a year

6.0%

Negotiated linkage to the wage determination where possible

Direct labour escalation

6.7% a year

6.7%

Sectoral determination and bargaining council settlements

Advisory revenue share

Building

11% of revenue

72% gross margin; consumes almost no deployed headcount

Residential revenue share

Held flat

8% of revenue

26% margin; retained defensively, grown slowest

20.2 Capital, funding and working capital

Assumption

Value

Basis

Total funding requirement

R26.56m

R16.49m fixed assets, R2.67m pre-opening, R7.40m working capital reserve

Equity subscription

R11.952m (45.0%)

Ordinary shares, fully subscribed at financial close

Senior term loan

R14.608m (55.0%)

13.75%, 84 months, 18-month capital moratorium

Invoice discounting facility

Up to R12.00m at 15.0%

65% advance against eligible debtors; bounded by the book

Pre-opening and accreditation

R2.67m charged to Year 1 income

Period cost; PSIRA and firearm licensing, SASSETA accreditation, vetting, formation

Debtor days

62 days

Against 30-day contractual terms; the covenant is 75

Maintenance capital expenditure

R0.60m rising to R2.80m

Fleet replacement cycle and systems

Corporate income tax

27% of taxable profit

Assessed losses carried forward under the section 20 limitation

Exit multiple

5.0 times Year 5 EBITDA

Tested from 3.5 to 6.0 times in Section 18

Hurdle rate

22%

The discount rate against which net present value is stated

Next section21. Conclusion