Kalahari Crown Exports Business Plan › Section 3 › Industry & Market Analysis

3.1 Global Fresh Fruit Market

The global fresh fruit trade is a multi-hundred-billion-dollar market
underpinned by durable demand drivers: rising health consciousness,
growth in disposable incomes across emerging markets, year-round
availability expectations in developed markets, and a structural shift
toward convenient, snackable and traceable produce. Northern Hemisphere
markets — the European Union, the United Kingdom and increasingly Asia
and the Middle East — rely on Southern Hemisphere suppliers to bridge
their off-season, creating a recurring counter-seasonal window that
South African producers are exceptionally well placed to serve.

Within this landscape, premium categories command disproportionate
value. Seedless table grapes, easy-peel soft citrus (mandarins and
clementines), late-season lemons, premium dates, cherries and tree nuts
have all delivered above-average price realisations and volume growth.
The Company’s crop selection is deliberately weighted toward these
higher-margin, demand-resilient categories.

3.2 South African Fruit Export Sector

South Africa is among the world’s leading fruit exporters and the
second-largest citrus exporter globally after Spain. In 2024, national
fresh fruit exports rose 2.1% to 4.2 million tonnes, continuing a
ten-year compound growth trend of approximately 3.7% per year, driven by
strong gains in apples, grapes and avocados.

Citrus. Citrus is the country’s single largest fruit
export category, accounting for roughly half of fresh fruit export
value. The 2025 season was a record, with 203.4 million 15kg-equivalent
cartons packed for export — a 22% increase on 2024 — led by Valencia
oranges (61.8m cartons), mandarins (53.5m, up 28%) and lemons (41.3m, up
26%). The Citrus Growers’ Association’s “Vision 260” strategy targets
260 million cartons annually by 2032.

Table grapes. Table grape exports reached a record
415,565 tonnes in 2024, up 30% year on year, returning to a long-term
growth trajectory of approximately 2.8% per year. Over 75% of South
African table grapes are destined for Europe, where they maintain a
strong counter-seasonal advantage; Canada has been a standout growth
market, expanding around 24% per year over the decade.

Deciduous & stone fruit. South Africa became the
largest apple exporter in the Southern Hemisphere in 2025, expanded pear
shipments to India, reopened the Thai apple market after a 16-year
suspension, and secured new access to China for peaches, nectarines,
plums, apricots and prunes — evidence of an actively widening
market-access frontier.

Figure 3.

3.3 Export Value & Destination Markets

South African fruit and nut exports reached US$2.7 billion in the
first half of 2025, a 13.3% increase on the prior-year period. The
European Union was the largest destination (38% of value), followed by
Asia (26%), the United Kingdom (14%), the Americas (9%) and Africa (6%).
Within the EU, the Netherlands functions as the principal entry and
re-distribution hub, taking roughly three-quarters of EU-bound
volume.

Figure 4.

This destination profile informs the Company’s route-to-market: an
anchor position in the EU and UK premium retail channels, complemented
by accelerating diversification into Asia and the Middle East to reduce
concentration risk and capture structural demand growth, particularly
for soft citrus and lemons.

3.4 Regional Production Advantage

The Orange River region of the Northern Cape produces close to a
third of South Africa’s table grape crop and is the country’s
earliest-harvesting grape region, giving producers a first-to-market
premium in European supermarkets. Upington’s aspiration to develop a
Special Economic Zone, together with the Northern Cape Vineyard
Development Scheme, strengthens the logistics and policy environment for
export-oriented producers. The Company’s decision to headquarter in
Upington and anchor its grape and date production along the Orange River
is a deliberate exploitation of this early-window, high-heat-unit
advantage.

3.5 Market Drivers & Demand Trends

• Health & wellness: sustained consumer shift
  toward fresh fruit as a healthy, convenient snack.
• Seedless & easy-peel preference: seeded
  grape varieties have fallen below 8% of plantings as consumers favour
  seedless; soft, easy-peel citrus continues to gain share.
• Traceability & sustainability: retailers
  increasingly require GlobalGAP, carbon and water accreditation — a
  barrier that favours well-capitalised, integrated producers.
• Premium & branded produce: differentiated,
  branded fruit attracts price premia over commodity supply.
• Market-access expansion: new phytosanitary
  protocols are opening China, India and South-East Asia to South African
  fruit.

3.6 Industry Challenges & Headwinds

A bankable plan must address the sector’s structural risks candidly.
Three are material:

Logistics & port efficiency. Inefficiencies in
rail and port infrastructure have been estimated by the Bureau for Food
and Agricultural Policy to cost the citrus industry approximately R5.27
billion per year. The Port of Cape Town recorded over 400 hours of
wind-related delays in the 2025 season. The Company mitigates this
through a multi-port strategy, cold-storage buffering and
reefer-container planning.

Trade barriers & tariffs. A 30% United States
tariff on certain South African produce, together with EU phytosanitary
measures on citrus black spot and false codling moth, creates
market-access uncertainty. The Company’s diversified destination
strategy deliberately limits dependence on any single market or trade
bloc.

Climate & water. Irrigation water availability
has been curtailed in drought years. The Company’s investment in drip
irrigation, on-farm reservoirs and water-efficient cultivars directly
addresses this constraint and is central to its sustainability
positioning.

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