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FluxCap Financial Services — Projected Profit & Loss Statement

The projected profit and loss statement and the revenue, cost and profitability trajectory underpinning FluxCap.

FluxCap Financial Services Business Plan › Section 19 › Projected Profit & Loss Statement

Section 19 · Business Plan

Projected Profit & Loss Statement

The projected profit and loss statement and the revenue, cost and profitability trajectory underpinning FluxCap.

R million FY2027 FY2028 FY2029 FY2030 FY2031
Revenue 95 310 780 1 650 3 100
Credit impairment charge (22) (83) (190) (370) (636)
Operating expenses (102) (185) (380) (760) (1 384)
EBITDA (28) 42 210 520 1 080
Depreciation & amortisation (38) (65) (89) (115) (108)
Net finance costs — (15) (82) (226) (448)
Profit before tax (66) (38) 39 179 524
Taxation (27%) — — — (31) (142)
Net profit after tax (66) (38) 39 148 383
Key ratios FY2027 FY2028 FY2029 FY2030 FY2031
EBITDA margin -29.5% 13.5% 26.9% 31.5% 34.8%
Cost-to-income ratio 106.8% 59.8% 48.7% 46.0% 44.6%
Cost of risk 22.0% 19.0% 16.5% 14.5% 13.0%
Portfolio yield 105.6% 77.5% 73.6% 70.2% 68.9%
Return on equity -10.0% -6.2% 5.9% 18.5% 32.3%
Figure 10
Figure 10 — Net profit after tax and return on equity — independently re-derived

Reading the P&L honestly

  • Three observations a promoter’s deck would omit.
    First, the Company is loss-making at the net level in FY2027 (−R65.5m)
    and FY2028 (−R38.1m): headline EBITDA turns positive a full year before
    net profit does, because D&A on the front-loaded technology build
    and interest on ramping facilities together exceed R80m in
    FY2028.
  • Second, the assessed tax loss peaks at R103.6m in FY2028 and
    shelters profits into FY2030; the Company pays meaningful cash tax only
    from FY2030 (R30.9m) and FY2031 (R141.6m). Valuations run off NPAT
    should not assume a full 27% charge before then.
  • Third, interest expense grows from nil to R448m — 41% of FY2031
    EBITDA — as the warehouse funds the book. The equity story is leveraged:
    modest EBITDA disappointment transmits amplified to the bottom line at
    terminal leverage of 4.1x debt-to-equity.
Figure 11
Figure 11 — Operating cost base by category (excluding impairments)
Figure 12
Figure 12 — Cost-to-income ratio and EBITDA margin trajectory
Related sections

Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of FluxCap Financial Services (Pty) Ltd.