FluxCap Financial Services — Financial Plan — Basis of Preparation & Key Assumptions
The financial plan basis of preparation and the key assumptions - the modelling framework and the assumptions register underpinning FluxCap.
Section 18 · Business Plan
Financial Plan — Basis of Preparation & Key Assumptions
The financial plan basis of preparation and the key assumptions – the modelling framework and the assumptions register underpinning FluxCap.
The five-year projections adopt an explicit two-layer discipline.
Layer one preserves the sponsor’s headline revenue, EBITDA, loan
book and customer targets exactly as presented. Layer two —
everything beneath EBITDA and the entire balance sheet and cash flow —
is independently re-derived by the adviser: full depreciation and
amortisation on the actual capex programme, full cash interest on drawn
facilities at market-consistent rates, and South African corporate tax
at 27% with assessed-loss carry-forward. Where the two layers create
tension, the tension is disclosed rather than smoothed. The balance
sheet is asserted to tie to zero in every projection year.
Key assumptions
| Assumption | Value | Basis / comment |
|---|---|---|
| Projection currency & horizon | ZAR (R million), FY2027–FY2031 | June financial year-ends assumed |
| Corporate tax | 27%, assessed-loss carry-forward | Current SA corporate rate |
| Portfolio yield (rev / avg net book) | 105.6% → 68.9% | Implied by sponsor headlines; inside NCA caps given short-term mix; declines with mix shift to instalment/payroll |
| Cost of risk (impairment / avg gross book) | 22.0% → 13.0% | Launch above industry default backdrop; glide path driven by mix and data maturity |
| Provision coverage | 8.0% of gross book | Held flat; conservative for a book de-risking over time |
| Senior facility pricing | Prime + 200bp (≈12.5%) | Committed R900m; drawn from FY2028 |
| Warehouse pricing | Prime + 130bp (≈11.8%) | Securitisation programme from M26; capacity to R4.2bn |
| Capex | R580m over 5 years (R150/110/95/105/120m) | R320m sponsor tech allocation front-loaded plus maintenance |
| Amortisation | Straight-line, 4 years | Platform, models, licences |
| Minimum operating cash | R80m | Treasury floor; drives facility drawdown |
| Equity raise | R720m, single tranche at close | Tranche 1 of the R1.8bn programme |
Preserving the sponsor’s revenue against the sponsor’s loan book
implies a portfolio yield of 105.6% of the average net book in FY2027,
declining to 68.9% by FY2031. Yields at this level are achievable only
with a heavy short-term credit mix priced at or near NCA short-term caps
(5%/month plus initiation and service fees). Two consequences follow:
(i) the revenue plan is structurally dependent on the current regulatory
pricing regime; and (ii) as the mix shifts toward lower-priced FluxFlex
and FluxSalary lending, book growth must outpace yield decline — which
is precisely why the loan book must more than double every year. A
conservative reader should stress both levers together, as Section 25
does.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of FluxCap Financial Services (Pty) Ltd.