FluxCap Financial Services Business Plan › Section 25 › Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis

FY2031 EBITDA sensitivity — cost of risk × portfolio yield

Reading: at plan yield, each +100bp of sustained cost of risk
removes ≈R63m of FY2031 EBITDA. A simultaneous 10% yield compression
(e.g. regulatory cap revision or competitive pricing) and +200bp CoR
reduces FY2031 EBITDA to R644m — still comfortably solvent but below the
R735m exit-cushion threshold identified in Section 23.

Scenario cases — EBITDA across the plan

Figure 19

• Downside (revenue −20%, CoR +300bp): EBITDA
  remains negative through FY2028 (−R120m cumulative deeper than base) and
  reaches only R413m by FY2031. The structure survives — coverage
  covenants are breached in FY2029 under this case, triggering growth
  throttling rather than default; the equity cushion absorbs the deeper
  losses. Exit MOIC at 6.5x falls to approximately 1.1x.
• Severe (revenue −35%, CoR +600bp): EBITDA never
  exceeds R48m and FY2031 lands at −R141m. This case is not survivable on
  the base funding plan: it requires either a second equity raise of
  R300–450m in FY2029 or an orderly book run-off, which the short asset
  duration makes feasible — the book self-liquidates ~70% within 12
  months, allowing debt repayment ahead of equity loss crystallisation.
  This is the honest answer to ‘what if it fails’: lenders are
  structurally protected by asset duration; equity bears the
  loss.
• Upside (revenue +10%, CoR −100bp): FY2031 EBITDA
  of R1,486m; exit equity value approximately R4.9bn; MOIC 6.8x. Presented
  for completeness, not for underwriting.

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