Every material assumption in the model is listed below with its adopted value and the basis on which it was set. Assumptions are deliberately conservative where evidence is thin, and preserve the sponsor’s commercial view of revenue and EBITDA while re-deriving all profit, tax, cash-flow and balance-sheet lines independently.
|
Assumption |
Adopted value |
Basis |
|---|---|---|
|
Revenue (Years 1–5) |
R145m / R330m / R690m / R1,180m / R1,820m |
Sponsor projection, preserved exactly |
|
EBITDA (Years 1–5) |
R22m / R68m / R165m / R338m / R562m |
Sponsor projection, preserved exactly |
|
EBITDA margin |
15.2% / 20.6% / 23.9% / 28.6% / 30.9% |
Derived: EBITDA ÷ revenue |
|
Corporate tax rate |
27.0% |
SA statutory rate from 1 Apr 2022 |
|
Assessed-loss set-off cap |
80.0% |
Post-2022 restriction (80% of taxable income) |
|
Depreciable capex |
R1,100m |
Total capex excluding land |
|
Non-depreciable land |
R60m |
Marine/coastal land component |
|
Senior debt |
R750m |
DFI + commercial syndicate |
|
Equity |
R500m |
Sponsor + strategic co-investment |
|
Blended interest rate |
11.3% |
DFI concessional + commercial blend |
|
Grace period |
2 years |
Principal-repayment holiday |
|
Amortisation term |
8 years |
Straight-line after grace |
|
Debtor days (DSO) |
45 days |
Export terms, partly secured by ECIC |
|
Inventory days (DIO) |
120 days |
Multi-year grow-out cycle for abalone |
|
Creditor days (DPO) |
40 days |
Feed inputs and consumables |
|
Dividend policy |
30.0% |
Share of positive NPAT distributed |
|
Exit EBITDA multiple |
8.0x |
Year-5 terminal-value basis |
|
WACC (discount rate) |
16.0% |
Blended cost of capital for NPV |