The dashboard tracks the metrics a lender and equity investor will monitor. Net debt/EBITDA and DSCR are the binding covenant metrics; both improve markedly once the asset base reaches commercial maturity from Year 4.
|
Metric |
Y1 |
Y2 |
Y3 |
Y4 |
Y5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue growth |
— |
127.6% |
109.1% |
71.0% |
54.2% |
|
|
EBITDA margin |
15.2% |
20.6% |
23.9% |
28.6% |
30.9% |
|
|
DSCR |
0.47x |
0.95x |
0.92x |
1.94x |
2.85x |
|
|
Net debt / EBITDA |
23.94x |
10.46x |
4.71x |
2.07x |
1.00x |
|
|
Return on capital employed |
-4.1% |
0.1% |
8.8% |
25.1% |
41.6% |
|
|
Closing cash (ZAR m) |
-114 |
-74 |
-121 |
-136 |
-94 |
|
|
ANALYST FLAG Covenant watch DSCR remains below 1.0x through Year 3 and clears a typical 1.3x DFI covenant only from Year 4. Net debt/EBITDA is elevated during the ramp. The structuring recommendations in the Financial Plan, an interest-service reserve, capitalised interest through the grace period, and a covenant holiday to Year 4, are prerequisites for a bankable package, not optional enhancements. |
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