1. Preparation

Company formation, land tenure, water permit, funding close

4 to 6 months

Registered land title and written finance approval at the intervention rate

2. Land development

Clearing, levelling, bunding, canals, pumps, boreholes

5 to 7 months

Confirmed dry-season water yield from the source

3. Mill construction

Civil works, mill erection, power, drying yard, warehouse

6 to 8 months

Fixed-price supply and installation contract with performance guarantee

4. Outgrower recruitment

Farmer identification, contracting, input pre-financing

3 months

At least 40 farmers contracted before the first purchase season

5. First crop

Dry-season land preparation, nursery, transplanting, harvest

5 months

Water system commissioned and tested at full flow

6. Mill commissioning

Test runs, recovery calibration, NAFDAC registration

2 months

Recovery verified at or above 62% on test batches

7. Ramp

Area expansion to full hectarage, outgrower scale-up

Years 2 to 3

Yield and recovery within plan for two consecutive seasons

Registered land title

Every drawdown of capital

Lenders cannot take security over land they cannot register, and customary and statutory rights frequently conflict. The most common failure point for Nigerian agricultural funding applications

Written intervention-rate finance approval

Any capital commitment

At commercial rates the equity return falls to 14.7% and Year 3 cover to 0.99x. There is no operational mitigation

Independent dry-season water yield test

Land development

The second crop is half the revenue and depends entirely on water available in the dry months. Testing after development is testing too late

Water abstraction permit

Lawful irrigation

Issued by the river basin development authority; without it dry-season irrigation is not lawful

Fixed-price mill supply contract

Mill order

The milling line is ₦172 000 000, 25% of capital expenditure. Performance guarantees and retention are the protection

40 outgrowers contracted

Mill order

Without purchased paddy the mill runs at 38% of capacity and does not earn its capital

Milling recovery verified at 62%

Plant acceptance

Recovery below 58% means withholding retention and requiring remedy, not accepting and hoping

Environmental impact assessment

Construction

Required for both the mill and the irrigation abstraction

Intervention-rate finance approved

Written approval of agricultural term debt at or near 9.0%

Signed offer letter or facility agreement

Do not proceed. At 28.5% Year 3 cover is 0.99x and the equity return 14.7%

Registered land tenure

Certificate of Occupancy or registered long lease adequate to secure the debt

Registered title deed and documented community agreements

The debt is not securable and the funding application fails at credit

Dry-season water yield

Year-round abstraction capacity sufficient for 100 ha under a second crop

Independent hydrological test at full flow, plus the abstraction permit

The venture is a one-crop rainfed farm, which is not viable at current paddy prices

Outgrower base

At least 40 farmers contracted before the mill is ordered

Signed supply agreements with agreed floor prices

Mill utilisation falls to 38% and the ₦172 000 000 line does not earn its capital

Fixed-price mill contract

Supply, installation and commissioning at a fixed price

Contract with performance guarantee and retention to 62% verified recovery

The largest capital line is exposed to overrun with no remedy

Site security assessment

A location where insecurity does not materially threaten operations

Documented assessment, perimeter plan and NAIC index cover in place

The risk is severe, uninsurable in part, and cannot be modelled away