Hectares cropped

60

100

Ramp to full area by Year 3

Crops a year

2

2

Dry season December to May, wet season June to November

Paddy yield per hectare per crop

4.30 t

5.25 t

Against a national average of 2.0 and a break-even of 3.52

Own farm paddy

516 t

1 050 t

Outgrower paddy purchased

217 t

868 t

620 t at the point of full production

Total paddy processed

733 t

1 918 t

Against a mill capacity of 2 600 t a year

Mill utilisation

28%

74%

62% at full production on 1 620 t

Milling recovery

62%

62%

Plus 8% bran and 20% husk

Milled rice sold

454 t

1 189 t

Ex-mill price per kilogram

₦920

₦1 422

Escalated 11.5% a year

Price per 50 kg bag

₦46 000

₦71 100

Against reported retail of ₦50 814 to ₦60 427 in early 2026

Cost per tonne of paddy at 5.0 t/ha

₦247 200

Against a market price of ₦350 800

Production cost per hectare per crop

₦1 236 000

Nine line items detailed in Section 6.3; fertiliser is 24.5% of it

Fertiliser per hectare per crop

₦303 000

Four bags NPK and two of urea, at ₦48 000 to ₦55 000 and ₦47 000 to ₦50 000 a bag

Milling cost per tonne of paddy

₦55 600

Six line items detailed in Section 6.4

Fixed cash costs, Year 1

₦176 000 000

Escalating 13.5% a year to ₦286 963 355 by Year 5

Permanent payroll

₦58 000 000

19 employees; seasonal labour is in the per-hectare cost

Price escalation

11.5% a year

Below the input cost escalation, which is the pattern Nigerian farmers have experienced

Input cost escalation

13.5% a year

Against headline inflation of 15.91% in June 2026

Capital expenditure

₦682 000 000

Twelve line items; the mill alone is ₦172 000 000, or 25%

Depreciation

₦58 916 667 a year

Straight line over lives from 6 to 20 years

Pre-operational and working capital

₦411 653 000

Of which ₦307 653 000 is working capital and ₦54 000 000 is expensed at day zero

Promoter equity

₦320 000 000

29.3% of the requirement

Grant

₦60 000 000

Credited to shareholders’ funds as a capital contribution

Agricultural term debt

₦713 653 000

9.0% over 8 years with a two-year capital moratorium

Debtor days

30 days

Distributors on 30-day terms; institutional buyers slower

Creditor days

21 days

Paddy purchases paid within 7 days of delivery

Inventory days

45 days

Paddy bought in a short harvest window and milled across the year

Companies income tax

30% with 3-year agricultural relief

The Year 1 assessed loss set off from Year 4

Exit multiple

4.50x Year 5 EBITDA

The weakest assumption in the model; readers should substitute their own

Paddy yield at maturity

5.0 t/ha across two crops

Agronomic assessment of the specific site: soil, levelling potential, water control

The dominant risk. At 3.0 t/ha the venture has no return; break-even for raw paddy is 3.52

Dry-season water availability

Sufficient for a full second crop on 100 ha

Independent hydrological testing at full flow across a dry season

Half the revenue disappears. The plan becomes a one-crop rainfed farm

Finance rate

9.0% intervention window

Written approval before capital is committed

₦667 819 392 of additional interest over five years; Year 3 cover falls to 0.99x

Ex-mill price

₦920 per kg in Year 1

Quoted offtake pricing from named distributors and institutional buyers

The largest sensitivity: a 10% fall removes ₦114 669 334 of Year 3 EBITDA

Milling recovery

62% head rice

Supplier performance guarantee and verified test batches at commissioning

A three-point shortfall costs ₦55 364 374 of Year 3 EBITDA

Production cost per hectare

₦1 236 000 per crop

Current written quotations for seed, fertiliser, agrochemicals and mechanisation

Fertiliser alone is 24.5% and moved sharply in 2026

Outgrower supply

620 t a year at maturity

Signed agreements with at least 40 farmers before the mill is ordered

Mill utilisation falls from 62% to 38%

Capital cost

₦682 000 000

Fixed-price contracts for the mill, irrigation and land development

The mill and land development together are ₦268 000 000, or 39% of capex