Paddy yield per hectare

Tonnes of paddy harvested divided by hectares cropped

5.0 t/ha by Year 3

Break-even yield for raw paddy is 3.52 t/ha against a national average of 2.0

Milling recovery

Head rice output divided by paddy processed

62% or above

A three-point shortfall costs N55364374 of Year 3 EBITDA

Mill utilisation

Paddy processed divided by 2 600 t annual capacity

62% at full production

The farm alone fills only 38%; the outgrower scheme is what makes the mill economic

Cost per tonne of paddy

Production cost divided by tonnes harvested

Below N247 200

Against a market price of N350 800. At 2.0 t/ha the cost is N618 000 and the farm loses money

Outgrowers delivering

Contracted farmers who actually deliver

200 at maturity, 40 before the mill is ordered

Side-selling is the principal risk in every Nigerian outgrower scheme

Ex-mill price achieved

Revenue divided by kilograms sold

N920 per kg in Year 1

Against reported retail of N50 814 to N60 427 per 50 kg bag; the gap is distributor margin

Debt service cover

EBITDA divided by interest and capital

Above 1.30x from Year 2

Negative in Year 1 by construction; the two-year moratorium is what makes the structure survivable

Broken grain percentage

Broken grains as a share of milled output

Below the grade threshold

Determines whether output sells at a premium or a discount

Paddy moisture at intake

Moisture content measured at the weighbridge

14% before parboiling

Correct drying is what protects milling recovery

Debtor days

Trade receivables divided by revenue times 365

Below 30 days

Institutional buyers are reliable and slow; the working capital cycle is already long