Helios Nexus Energy — Appendices
Supporting appendices - the full 10-year three-statement model, the assumptions register, the downside scenario, the key financial ratios, the sources and the glossary and abbreviations underpinning the Helios Nexus business plan and financial model.
Section 14 · Business Plan
Appendices
Supporting appendices – the full 10-year three-statement model, the assumptions register, the downside scenario, the key financial ratios, the sources and the glossary and abbreviations underpinning the Helios Nexus business plan and financial model.
Appendix A — Full 10-Year Three-Statement Model
Income statement (R m)
| R m | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 650 | 2,100 | 4,500 | 7,900 | 11,800 | 16,500 | 21,200 | 25,600 | 30,800 |
| EBITDA | 0 | 180 | 820 | 1,950 | 3,600 | 5,400 | 7,700 | 9,800 | 11,600 | 13,400 |
| Depreciation | – | (29) | (93) | (199) | (349) | (521) | (729) | (936) | (1130) | (1360) |
| Interest | – | (247) | (572) | (873) | (1120) | (1235) | (1143) | (1051) | (880) | (710) |
| PBT | 0 | (96) | 156 | 878 | 2,131 | 3,644 | 5,828 | 7,813 | 9,589 | 11,331 |
| Tax | – | – | (16) | (237) | (575) | (984) | (1574) | (2110) | (2589) | (3059) |
| NPAT (re-derived) | 0 | (96) | 140 | 641 | 1,556 | 2,660 | 4,255 | 5,703 | 7,000 | 8,271 |
Cash flow (R m)
| R m | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 0 | 122 | 673 | 1,497 | 2,719 | 4,065 | 5,703 | 7,268 | 8,615 | 9,873 |
| Capex | (2400) | (3600) | (4200) | (3900) | (3800) | (3500) | (2800) | (2200) | (1600) | (800) |
| Debt draws | – | 2,200 | 2,900 | 2,700 | 2,200 | 1,000 | – | – | – | – |
| Equity injections | 2,900 | 3,600 | 3,400 | 2,600 | 2,100 | 1,400 | 900 | 500 | 300 | 100 |
| Dividends | – | – | – | – | – | – | (3829) | (5133) | (6300) | (7444) |
| Closing cash | 500 | 2,575 | 4,776 | 6,800 | 8,899 | 9,829 | 7,860 | 5,693 | 4,278 | 3,747 |
Balance sheet (R m)
| R m | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPE (net) | 0 | 545 | 1,733 | 3,654 | 6,308 | 9,231 | 12,653 | 15,868 | 18,623 | 21,855 |
| CWIP | 2,400 | 5,426 | 8,346 | 10,126 | 10,923 | 10,979 | 9,629 | 7,678 | 5,392 | 1,600 |
| Cash | 500 | 2,575 | 4,776 | 6,800 | 8,899 | 9,829 | 7,860 | 5,693 | 4,278 | 3,747 |
| Total assets | 2,900 | 8,604 | 15,044 | 20,985 | 26,841 | 31,101 | 31,627 | 31,147 | 30,597 | 29,974 |
| Equity | 2,900 | 6,404 | 9,944 | 13,185 | 16,841 | 20,901 | 22,227 | 23,297 | 24,297 | 25,224 |
| Debt | 0 | 2,200 | 5,100 | 7,800 | 10,000 | 10,200 | 9,400 | 7,850 | 6,300 | 4,750 |
| Check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Appendix B — Assumptions Register
Assumptions marked ◆ are sponsor anchors preserved exactly; all
others are analyst-derived.
| # | Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Revenue path ◆ | R0 → R30,800m (Y1–Y10) | Sponsor |
| 2 | EBITDA ◆ | R180m → R13,400m | Sponsor |
| 3 | Capital programme ◆ | R28,800m across 7 categories | Sponsor (headline R24.8bn flagged §8) |
| 4 | Funding stack ◆ | R17,800m equity + R11,000m debt | Sponsor |
| 5 | Project schedule ◆ | 6 GW gen + 1.5 GW storage; 5 projects | Sponsor |
| 6 | Depreciation | ~20-yr blended (solar/wind 25, BESS 12) | Analyst (asset-class lives) |
| 7 | Senior debt rate | 11.5% ZAR | Analyst; SA infra debt |
| 8 | Green bond rate | 10.5% ZAR | Analyst; ESG pricing benefit |
| 9 | Corporate tax | 27% + s20 loss carry-forward | Income Tax Act |
| 10 | Working capital | 9% of revenue | Trading receivables ~33 days |
| 11 | RCF | R1,600m facility, 12% | Analyst; ramp liquidity |
| 12 | Dividend policy | Cash-sweep above R2,500m from Y7 | Analyst |
| 13 | Exit multiple (base) | 9x EV/EBITDA | Analyst; trading-mix & SA discount |
| 14 | Exit multiple (sponsor) | 11x EV/EBITDA | Sponsor |
| 15 | Contracted revenue target | 80% | Sponsor |
Appendix C — Downside Scenario
The downside combines a grid-driven generation delay with a
restrictive trading-regulation outcome — the two binding constraints.
Revenue is reduced 25% against base throughout, compressing EBITDA
through operating leverage.
| R m | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (−25%) | 3,375 | 5,925 | 8,850 | 12,375 | 15,900 | 23,100 |
| EBITDA | 1,658 | 3,060 | 4,590 | 6,545 | 8,330 | 11,390 |
| Debt service | (873) | (1,120) | (2,035) | (1,943) | (2,601) | (2,260) |
| DSCR (x) | 1.90 | 2.73 | 2.26 | 3.37 | 3.20 | 5.04 |
In the downside, DSCR compresses but the contracted generation core
continues to service debt through most of the horizon, because owned
generation (70% of revenue) is contracted and resilient even when the
trading division is constrained. This is the structural benefit of
anchoring the platform in generation rather than trading: the stress
case is uncomfortable but survivable, and equity value is deferred
rather than destroyed. It is the case against which lenders should size
the debt-service reserve, contracted-revenue covenants and the equity
cushion.
Appendix D — Key Financial Ratios
The table summarises the principal credit and return ratios derived
from the three-statement model, for lender and investor reference. All
figures follow from the independently re-derived statements in Appendix
A.
| Metric | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | Y7 | Y8 | Y9 | Y10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin (%) | 39 | 43 | 46 | 46 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 44 |
| Net margin (%) | 7 | 14 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| DSCR (x) | 1.18 | 1.71 | 2.43 | 2.00 | 2.94 | 2.79 | 3.54 | 4.37 |
| Interest cover (x) | 1.4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 13.2 | 18.9 |
| Debt / EBITDA (x) | 6.2 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Debt / (Debt+Equity) % | 34 | 37 | 37 | 33 | 30 | 25 | 21 | 16 |
| Return on equity (%) | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 24 | 29 | 33 |
| Capex / revenue (%) | 200 | 87 | 48 | 30 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
The ratios trace the platform’s maturation: margins and cover
strengthen as generation stabilises, gearing (debt/EBITDA and
debt/capital) falls steadily as the assets de-lever, and return on
equity climbs into the operating phase. The Year-2–3 ramp is the weak
point across every credit metric — the window the debt-service reserve,
contracted-revenue floor and distribution lock-up are designed to
protect — after which the credit profile is strong and improving. This
ratio set is the quantitative summary a credit committee would anchor
on.
Appendix E — Sources
- NERSA — July 2025 notice of intent to develop electricity Trading
Rules under s35 ERA (gazetting anticipated mid-2026); trading-licence
framework - Eskom — Virtual Wheeling Platform launch (June 2025); Vodacom
pilot (15,000+ sites, 168 municipalities); initial exclusion of
third-party traders pending Trading Rules - Cliffe Dekker Hofmeyr, Pinsent Masons, Green Building Africa —
trader landscape (Envusa/Anglo-EDF, NOA, EXSA/Remgro, Etana, Enpower,
PowerX, Africa GreenCo); wheeling and VWP mechanics - SALGA (2023) — status of municipal wheeling frameworks (few
operational systems); ERA 2021–2023 reforms (licensing threshold
removal, multi-offtaker wheeling) - Africa.com / market data — installed renewable capacity 18.18 GW
(2025); short-term PPA trend; corporate-PPA growth - DMRE/DEE, NTCSA, GreenCape, CSIR — grid-capacity constraints;
Independent Transmission Projects programme; IRP renewable/storage
build-out - Sponsor brief — Helios Nexus revenue/EBITDA/NPAT, R28.8bn capital
& funding stack, project schedule, exit assumptions (independently
re-derived below EBITDA herein)
Appendix F — Glossary & Abbreviations
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Ancillary services | Grid-balancing services (frequency, reserves) sold to the system operator |
| BESS | Battery Energy Storage System |
| Capacity factor | Actual output as a percentage of maximum possible output |
| COD | Commercial Operation Date |
| Corporate PPA | Power Purchase Agreement between a generator and a private offtaker |
| Curtailment | Grid-instructed reduction of generation output |
| DFI | Development Finance Institution |
| DSCR | Debt-Service Cover Ratio |
| ERA | Electricity Regulation Act (as amended, 2024) |
| Green bond | Debt instrument ring-fenced to certified environmental assets |
| IPP | Independent Power Producer |
| IRP | Integrated Resource Plan |
| ITP | Independent Transmission Projects programme |
| NERSA | National Energy Regulator of South Africa |
| NTCSA | National Transmission Company of South Africa |
| PPA | Power Purchase Agreement |
| REC | Renewable Energy Certificate |
| REIPPPP | Renewable Energy IPP Procurement Programme |
| SAPP | Southern African Power Pool |
| Trading (electricity) | Buying and reselling power under a NERSA trading licence |
| VWP | Virtual Wheeling Platform (Eskom) |
| Wheeling | Transporting power across the grid from generator to offtaker |
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Helios Nexus Energy Holdings (Pty) Ltd.