Helios Nexus Energy — Exit Strategy & Investor Returns
The exit routes, the exit economics and the value-realisation pathways available to equity investors over the investment horizon.
Section 12 · Business Plan
Exit Strategy & Investor Returns
The exit routes, the exit economics and the value-realisation pathways available to equity investors over the investment horizon.
12.1 Exit routes
- Infrastructure-fund sale (primary route). A
diversified, contracted, cash-generative multi-gigawatt platform is a
prime target for infrastructure and pension funds seeking long-dated,
inflation-linked returns — the deepest buyer pool for clean-energy
infrastructure. - Strategic acquisition. Sale to a global utility,
IPP or energy-major building African scale, for whom the integrated
generation-storage-trading platform is strategically valuable. - Green-bond refinancing / recapitalisation.
Refinancing stabilised assets and expanding green-bond issuance releases
equity value ahead of a full exit, at lower cost given the platform’s
ESG profile. - IPO / listing (long-dated option). At full scale
with an operating track record, a public listing offers exit
optionality, subject to market conditions.
12.2 Exit economics
Two exit cases frame the return. The sponsor applies
an 11x EV/EBITDA infrastructure multiple to Year-10 EBITDA of R13.4bn —
an enterprise value of R147.4bn and, after net debt, equity value of
about R146bn — producing a 32–36% IRR and 8.6x equity multiple. This
Plan’s base case applies a conservative 9x, reflecting both a South
African country-risk discount and the reality that the platform’s
trading-weighted earnings warrant a lower multiple than pure contracted
generation: an enterprise value near R121bn and equity value near
R120bn, for an equity IRR of about 36.3% at a 8.8x multiple. The return
is strong even on the conservative multiple — the 11x case is
upside.
| Exit metric | Conservative (9x) | Sponsor (11x) |
|---|---|---|
| Year-10 EBITDA (R m) | 13,400 | 13,400 |
| EV/EBITDA multiple | 9.0x | 11.0x |
| Enterprise value (R m) | 120,600 | 147,400 |
| Less net debt (R m) | 1,003 | 1,003 |
| Equity value (R m) | 119,597 | 146,397 |
| Equity IRR | 36.3% | 39.4% |
| Equity multiple | 8.8x | 10.5x |
A note on valuation method. A single blended
multiple understates the platform’s value. Sophisticated buyers will
value it sum-of-the-parts: a premium infrastructure multiple on the
contracted generation and storage earnings (the majority of EBITDA), and
a lower trading-business multiple on the trading and wheeling margin.
Because generation and storage dominate EBITDA, the blended outcome sits
comfortably in the 9–11x range modelled — but the divisional framing is
how the Company will present value at exit, and it supports the upper
end of the range for the asset-backed core.
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Helios Nexus Energy Holdings (Pty) Ltd.