The following register documents every material assumption underpinning the model, its source and its rationale, so that reviewers can independently test each input.
|
Assumption |
Value |
Source / rationale |
|---|---|---|
|
Revenue trajectory |
R22m → R205m |
Sponsor targets, preserved exactly |
|
EBITDA trajectory |
R4.8m → R73m |
Sponsor targets, preserved exactly |
|
Gross margin |
45% → 55% |
Mix shift toward branded lines |
|
Opex |
Plug to EBITDA |
Balancing item to sponsor EBITDA |
|
SA corporate tax |
27% |
SARS statutory rate |
|
Assessed-loss cap |
80% |
Post-2022 SA tax rule |
|
Prime / repo |
10.5% / 7.0% |
SARB, July 2026 |
|
Term debt |
R20m @ 12.5%, 8y, 1y grace |
Prime + 2.0%, DFI/commercial |
|
Revolver |
R30m @ 13.0% |
Prime + 2.5%, seasonal WC |
|
Receivables / inventory / payables |
15% / 18% / 10% of revenue |
Export terms & seasonality |
|
Depreciation |
10–20y straight-line by class |
SA wear-and-tear conventions |
|
Orchard bearing |
From Year 4 |
Grafted-cultivar maturity |
|
WACC |
16.5% |
Blended equity & after-tax debt |
|
Exit multiple |
7.0× EV/EBITDA |
Premium natural-ingredients comps |
|
Global market |
US$64m (2026) → US$106m (2033) |
Independent market studies |