Appendix A — Capital expenditure schedule (R m)
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mine development |
1,120 |
840 |
560 |
280 |
0 |
|
Underground infrastructure |
630 |
420 |
210 |
140 |
0 |
|
Smelter & refinery |
190 |
665 |
665 |
380 |
0 |
|
Concentrator plant |
392 |
392 |
196 |
0 |
0 |
|
Vermiculite & magnetite |
270 |
162 |
108 |
0 |
0 |
|
Chemicals division |
84 |
168 |
168 |
0 |
0 |
|
Logistics infrastructure |
78 |
104 |
78 |
0 |
0 |
|
Renewable energy systems |
54 |
72 |
54 |
0 |
0 |
|
Sustaining capex |
0 |
0 |
82 |
287 |
451 |
|
Total cash capex |
2,818 |
2,823 |
2,121 |
1,087 |
451 |
Appendix B — Depreciation, interest & tax (R m)
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Depreciation (UoP + SL) |
95 |
248 |
397 |
500 |
559 |
|
Gross PP&E |
3,198 |
6,021 |
8,142 |
9,229 |
9,680 |
|
Accumulated depreciation |
95 |
342 |
739 |
1,239 |
1,798 |
|
Interest expense |
150 |
391 |
518 |
542 |
484 |
|
Debt (closing) |
2,600 |
4,200 |
4,810 |
4,610 |
3,810 |
|
Rehab. provision unwinding |
34 |
37 |
41 |
44 |
48 |
|
Taxation |
0 |
0 |
12 |
249 |
626 |
Appendix C — Mineral royalty & production (MPRRA)
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Royalty rate (effective) |
1.15% |
1.44% |
1.88% |
2.28% |
2.67% |
|
Royalty (R m) |
14 |
40 |
96 |
180 |
315 |
|
Ore processed (Mt) |
4.0 |
7.5 |
10.5 |
12.8 |
14.0 |
|
Refined copper (t) |
22,360 |
41,925 |
58,695 |
71,552 |
78,260 |
|
C1 cash cost (US$/lb) |
$0.67 |
$0.79 |
$0.98 |
$1.20 |
$1.58 |
|
AISC (US$/lb) |
$0.68 |
$0.81 |
$1.03 |
$1.30 |
$1.72 |
Appendix D — Key ratios
|
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
EBITDA margin |
15.2% |
19.3% |
23.1% |
26.1% |
28.9% |
|
EBIT margin |
7.3% |
10.4% |
15.4% |
19.8% |
24.2% |
|
Net margin |
-8.0% |
-4.9% |
4.2% |
9.2% |
14.3% |
|
ROCE |
1.1% |
2.9% |
6.9% |
13.3% |
23.0% |
|
DSCR (x) |
1.22x |
1.38x |
1.63x |
1.62x |
1.82x |
|
Net debt / EBITDA (x) |
-2.87x |
4.31x |
3.43x |
2.12x |
0.99x |
Appendix E — Assumptions register
|
Assumption |
Value / basis |
|---|---|
|
Copper price (base / range) |
US$12,000/t base; US$9,000–15,000/t tested |
|
Rand / US dollar |
R18.5 per US$ |
|
Reserve / grade / recovery |
~250 Mt / 0.65% Cu / 86% |
|
Nameplate / mine life |
14 Mt/yr ore; ~18-year life |
|
Debt : equity |
60 : 40 (R5.16bn : R3.44bn) |
|
Cost of debt / tenor |
11.5%; grace on principal Yrs 1–2 |
|
Tax |
27% with 80% assessed-loss set-off cap |
|
Royalty |
MPRRA refined-mineral formula, capped 5% |
|
Rehabilitation |
IAS 37; R380m asset, 9% unwinding |
|
Working capital / dividends |
11% of revenue; 25% NPAT, deferred |
|
Exit |
5.0x EV/EBITDA on Year-5 EBITDA |
Appendix F — Glossary
|
Term |
Definition |
|---|---|
|
AISC |
All-in sustaining cost — cash cost plus royalties and sustaining capital, per unit. |
|
Block cave |
Bulk underground mining method inducing controlled caving of the orebody. |
|
C1 cash cost |
Direct cash cost of production, net of by-product credits. |
|
Carbonatite |
Carbonate-rich igneous rock hosting the copper and industrial minerals. |
|
CFADS |
Cash flow available for debt service. |
|
DSCR |
Debt-service cover ratio — CFADS divided by debt service. |
|
DFI |
Development finance institution (e.g. IDC, DBSA, AfDB). |
|
MPRRA |
Mineral and Petroleum Resources Royalty Act. |
|
SAMREC |
South African code for reporting mineral resources and reserves. |
|
UoP |
Units-of-production depreciation, based on ore mined vs reserves. |
Appendix G — Integrated five-year financial summary (R m)
The condensed statement below draws the projection together on a single page, the profit and loss, balance sheet and cash flow reconciled and tying in every year.
|
Line item (R m) |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||
|
Revenue |
1,200 |
2,800 |
5,100 |
7,900 |
11,800 |
|
EBITDA |
182 |
540 |
1,180 |
2,060 |
3,410 |
|
Depreciation |
-95 |
-248 |
-397 |
-500 |
-559 |
|
Net interest & unwinding |
-184 |
-428 |
-559 |
-586 |
-532 |
|
Taxation |
-0 |
-0 |
-12 |
-249 |
-626 |
|
Net profit after tax |
-96 |
-136 |
212 |
726 |
1,692 |
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||
|
Net PP&E |
3,103 |
5,679 |
7,403 |
7,990 |
7,882 |
|
Cash |
3,123 |
1,873 |
758 |
251 |
448 |
|
Total assets |
6,358 |
7,859 |
8,722 |
9,111 |
9,628 |
|
Total equity |
3,344 |
3,208 |
3,420 |
3,964 |
5,234 |
|
Senior debt |
2,600 |
4,200 |
4,810 |
4,610 |
3,810 |
|
CASH FLOW |
|||||
|
Operating |
-100 |
-27 |
397 |
962 |
1,871 |
|
Investing |
-2,818 |
-2,823 |
-2,121 |
-1,087 |
-451 |
|
Financing |
6,040 |
1,600 |
610 |
-381 |
-1,223 |
|
Closing cash |
3,123 |
1,873 |
758 |
251 |
448 |
This document is strictly private and confidential. It has been prepared for the exclusive use of prospective financiers and does not constitute an offer of securities or investment advice. All projections are estimates based on stated assumptions and are subject to material risk, of which copper-price and execution risk are the most significant.