TerraNova Copper & Minerals Group Business Plan — Financial Plan

This section and the four that follow present a complete, internally consistent financial model. The modelling philosophy is disciplined and transparent: the sponsor’s revenue and EBITDA targets are preserved exactly, while every line below EBITDA, depreciation, financing cost, the mineral royalty, rehabilitation provisioning, taxation and returns, is independently re-derived from first principles. The balance sheet is constructed to tie in every year, and the cash flow reconciles to the movement in cash. Where our figures differ from the sponsor’s, we disclose the variance openly.

Financial performance at a glance

The dashboard below summarises the model’s headline outputs across the five-year projection. It captures the plan’s essential arc: heavy investment and early-ramp losses giving way to strong profitability, rapid deleveraging and attractive returns as production matures.

Metric	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5
Revenue (R m)	1,200	5,100	11,800
EBITDA (R m)	182	1,180	3,410
EBITDA margin	15.2%	23.1%	28.9%
Net profit (R m)	-96	212	1,692
Refined copper (t)	22,360	58,695	78,260
AISC (US$/lb)	$0.67	$1.03	$1.72
DSCR (x)	1.22x	1.63x	1.82x
Net debt / EBITDA (x)	-2.87x	3.43x	0.99x
ROCE	1.1%	6.9%	23.0%

Key modelling assumptions

Assumption	Value	Basis
Copper price (base)	US$12,000/t	Mid-range of 2026 consensus; below spot
Rand / US dollar	R18.5/US$	Prevailing rate; dollar revenue hedges rand cost
Head grade / recovery	0.65% Cu / 86%	Carbonatite benchmark
Senior debt / equity	60% / 40%	R5.16bn debt, R3.44bn equity
Cost of debt	11.5%	Prime + ~100bps, DFI-anchored
Depreciation	UoP + straight-line	Mine on units-of-production; plant straight-line
Corporate tax	27%	With 80% assessed-loss set-off cap
Mineral royalty	MPRRA formula	Refined-mineral rate, capped 5%
Rehabilitation	IAS 37 provision	Capitalised asset + unwinding charge
Working capital	11% of revenue	Inventory + receivables less payables
Dividends	25% of NPAT	Deferred through build & deleverage
Exit multiple	5.0x EV/EBITDA	Diversified copper/minerals producer

Sources and uses

Uses of funds	R m	Sources of funds	R m
Mine development	2,800	Senior debt (DFI-anchored)	5,160
Smelter & refinery	1,900	Equity	3,440
Underground infrastructure	1,400
Concentrator plant	980
Vermiculite & magnetite plants	540
Chemicals division	420
Logistics infrastructure	260
Renewable energy systems	180
Working capital	120
Total uses	8,600	Total sources	8,600

Figure 16. *Funding structure at financial close*

Alignment with development-finance mandates

The transaction is structured for blended, DFI-anchored funding. Its features map directly onto the mandates of the target funders: industrialisation and beneficiation of a strategic metal (IDC), infrastructure and regional development (DBSA), African industrial capacity (AfDB), export earnings and credit insurance (ECIC), and long-horizon developmental returns (PIC). The 3,100 direct jobs, local beneficiation, renewable-energy integration and export orientation make TerraNova a natural fit for concessional and blended capital.