Urbanova Business Plan › Section 31 › Year-by-Year Financial Commentary

FY2027 — Foundation and Funded Loss

Revenue of R180m reflects a part-year contribution from the first
1,200 units plus early sales-programme transfers. EBITDA of negative
R45m carries the full weight of platform build-out ahead of scale. With
R12m of depreciation and no debt yet drawn, the net loss of R57m creates
the opening section 20 assessed loss. Capex of R1 250m, heavily weighted
to Phase 1 land at R840m, is funded entirely from the R1.5bn first
equity tranche, closing the year with R205m cash. Lender takeaway:
FY2027 performance evidence (occupancy trajectory, collections,
cost-per-unit outturn) is the gating information for every subsequent
drawdown.

FY2028 — First Debt, First Profit

Revenue nearly triples to R520m as the portfolio reaches 3,800 units.
EBITDA turns positive at R85m. The first R700m senior tranche is drawn
mid-year; interest of R36m is fully covered (2.37x). The assessed loss
shelters nearly all taxable income under the 80% cap, holding cash tax
to R0.5m. NPAT of R9.4m is the platform’s first accounting profit.
Closing cash builds to R649m ahead of the FY2029 amortisation cliff.

FY2029 — The Covenant Year

The pivotal year. Revenue of R1,150m and EBITDA of R310m coincide
with the expiry of the two-year grace period: R392m of principal joins
R128m of interest, driving the DSCR to 0.60x (Finding 2). The breach is
pre-identified, structural, and cash-covered four times over by the
R834m closing balance, but as drafted it would be an event of default
under a conventional 1.20x covenant. The facility must be structured
around this year: sculpted amortisation, extended grace, or a DSRA
drawdown mechanic. The remaining assessed loss is exhausted; the Company
becomes a full cash taxpayer from FY2030.

FY2030 — Scale Economics Assert Themselves

Revenue of R2,400m at a 32.5% EBITDA margin demonstrates platform
leverage. DSCR recovers to 1.25x, positive but still below the
1.35–1.50x level at which lenders typically permit distributions; the
model accordingly assumes full cash retention. Net debt peaks at R1 768m
while book LTV of 49,1% (21.7% on sponsor fair value) remains deeply
conservative by sector standards.

FY2031 — Exit Readiness

At full 20,000-unit scale the Company generates R1,450m EBITDA, R679m
NPAT and a 1.93x DSCR, with net debt of R3 012m against sponsor fair
value of R18.8bn (20.9% LTV). On these metrics the platform is
REIT-listable: the binding constraints are audited stabilised income
history and the rental/sales mix disclosure, not leverage. The FY2031
balance sheet supports either a listing, a refinancing that releases
equity, or staged asset sales.

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