Urbanova — Rental-Only Normalised Case (Underwriting Anchor)
The rental-only normalised case recommended as the underwriting anchor for Urbanova.
Section 30 · Business Plan
Rental-Only Normalised Case (Underwriting Anchor)
The rental-only normalised case recommended as the underwriting anchor for Urbanova.
For debt sizing, the analyst recommends underwriting the rental
platform alone, stripping the development-sales balancing item entirely.
Rental-platform revenue is rebuilt bottom-up (Section 6) and EBITDA
applies a 52% platform margin (property-level NOI of ±65% less
internalised corporate overhead) less R25m fixed head-office cost:
| Rm | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | FY2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rental platform revenue | 52 | 231 | 563 | 1 061 | 1 808 |
| Normalised EBITDA | 2 | 95 | 268 | 527 | 915 |
| Sponsor EBITDA (for reference) | -45 | 85 | 310 | 780 | 1 450 |
| DEBT SIZING IMPLICATION Normalised FY2031 EBITDA of R 915 m supports senior debt of roughly R3.4–R3.9bn at a 1.8–2.0x stabilised DSCR, not the full R5.1bn. The remaining R1.2–R1.7bn of the debt quantum is effectively underwritten against development-sales cash flows and should be structured as a separate development facility, repaid from unit-transfer proceeds, rather than term debt against the rental portfolio. This two-facility structure aligns each lender’s security with the cash flow that services it. |
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