Urbanova — Scenario Analysis
The scenario analysis across base, downside and stress cases underpinning Urbanova.
Section 29 · Business Plan
Scenario Analysis
The scenario analysis across base, downside and stress cases underpinning Urbanova.
| FY2031 outcome | Downside | Base | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (Rm) | 3,485 | 4,100 | 4,510 |
| EBITDA (Rm) | 1,112 | 1,450 | 1,676 |
| EBITDA margin | 31.9% | 35.4% | 37.2% |
| Indicative DSCR FY2029 | 0.42x | 0.60x | 0.72x |
| Indicative FY2031 DSCR | 1.48x | 1.93x | 2.23x |
Downside: 15% revenue shortfall (slower lease-up, sales programme
delays) with 55% flow-through to EBITDA. Upside: 10% outperformance on
rents and sales velocity. Even the upside case does not cure the FY2029
DSCR breach, reinforcing that the fix is structural (amortisation
sculpting), not operational.
Figure 21
Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Urbanova Living Developments (Pty) Ltd.