Urbanova — Valuation Benchmarks & Comparable Evidence
The valuation benchmarks and the comparable evidence underpinning Urbanova.
Section 34 · Business Plan
Valuation Benchmarks & Comparable Evidence
The valuation benchmarks and the comparable evidence underpinning Urbanova.
The sponsor’s FY2031 portfolio value of R18.8bn implies roughly
R940,000 per unit blended across rental stock and undelivered sales
inventory. The table tests that figure against observable South African
market evidence.
| Benchmark | Evidence | Implication for R18.8bn FV |
|---|---|---|
| Residential REIT portfolio yields | SA-listed residential portfolios trade/value at 8.5–10.5% NOI yields | At 9.5% on FY2031 stabilised rental NOI (~R1,050m est.), rental portfolio supports ~R11.0bn |
| Replacement cost | R425k–R520k all-in per unit (Section 5) | 20,000 units at R470k average ≈ R9.4bn before land value uplift |
| Divercity / IHS transaction evidence | Institutional trades at modest premia to cost pre-stabilisation | Supports cost-plus valuation early; yield-based only once stabilised |
| Listed sector discounts to NAV | SA REITs have traded at 10–35% discounts to NAV in recent years | A listing may crystallise less than appraised FV — relevant to Finding 3 |
| Sales programme inventory | Priced at market transfer values, not yield | Legitimately adds value above rental-yield math for the ~40–45% sales share |
| ANALYST VIEW ON THE R18.8BN Triangulation supports a FY2031 enterprise value of R13–R16bn on stabilised-plus-inventory math, versus the sponsor’s R18.8bn. The gap is not fatal, equity IRR remains above 40% at R14bn, but the sponsor figure should be presented to investors as an upside case, with the R13–R16bn band as the underwriting anchor, consistent with the treatment of revenue in Section 16. |
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Confidential — this business plan is provided to prospective investors and lenders for evaluation purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the written consent of Urbanova Living Developments (Pty) Ltd.